A year ago, Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was someone I targeted late in drafts because many fantasy owners seemed to be ignoring the vast statistical potential, believed to be blunted by health or performance issues. This was a proven player, but one who became a 10th-round selection, on average, in ESPN live drafts.

Things have considerably changed today, as Newton is that quarterback, the first one off the draft board, and thus, he shows up leading my annual “do not draft” list. Nice guy, nice player, but no longer close to nice value. Newton is going early in the second round in current ADP, and that’s no discount. I’ll wait on my quarterbacks a lot longer.

Value is the key in any draft, and context is important. I neither predict statistical doom for Newton nor tell anyone to blindly avoid him, but he’s poor value in the overall top 15 because quarterback is a deep position, and though there are many ways to construct a team, I find it easier to build with flex-eligible options first, then find the passers -- and tight ends, as we’ll see -- later on.

Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck were the first quarterbacks off the 2015 draft board for most, starting late in Round 1. They made this list last season because there was no way I would have drafted them before someone else would have. By the way, like pretty much every quarterback chosen in the first two rounds the past decade, they proved to be not even close to worth it.

Now that we’ve established that saying “do not draft” means “do not draft based on ADP value,” let’s check out the list.

Quarterback

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: I draft running backs and wide receivers -- and generally, based on best available -- in the first five rounds, at least. I rank Newton 40th overall. None of this means you can’t win a league by taking him in Round 1, but don’t assume you will find late-round running backs such as Devonta Freeman and David Johnson to emerge and carry you. By the way, Newton isn’t rushing for 10 scores again. Every quarterback to do that since 1970 has lost at least six rushing TDs the following year, including Newton himself in 2012. He might end up fantasy’s top quarterback, but he'll probably have 50 fewer points.

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars: Bortles misses my top 10 at quarterback because I don’t see the friendly confluence of factors that landed him as a top-five fantasy option last season occurring again. The Jags couldn’t run the ball and couldn’t keep up with teams defensively, and Bortles was forced to throw a ton and quite a bit in the latter stages of games, when there was much stat-padding. As a general theme, relying on stat-padding is dangerous. Now the Jags can run with Chris Ivory, I think, and defend better. I rank Bortles 11th, so it’s not that I think he’s Jay Cutler, but still, he’ll be over-drafted at his position and especially overall.

Running back

Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers: He remains in my top 20 at the position because, well, I can’t find 20 running backs who deserve it. On opportunity alone, Hyde is intriguing. The skills are there, and some view the addition of Chip Kelly as a boon to his value. I don’t. The Eagles were a mess last year, and Kelly’s theories and refusal to adapt played significant roles. In theory, yes, more offensive plays are a good thing for the offensive players, but the 49ers lack good quarterback options and respectable offensive line choices, and the schedule, not only in the terrifying NFC West, is a problem. Plus, foot and ankle injuries have held Hyde back. In Round 6 or Round 7, I’ll invest, but he’ll go earlier. Frankly, the better 49ers running back value is Shaun Draughn in Round 14.

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers: His 2015 numbers appear fine, and we celebrated his best season in a while, but those numbers are mainly volume-based, and I must question the future volume because of injuries. You’ve got to think another running back on the Panthers steps up if Cameron Artis-Payne cannot. Stewart is inefficient and isn’t the goal-line back anyway. The QB is.

Jeremy Langford, Chicago Bears: Blessed with opportunity as a rookie but clearly unproductive, Langford has opened the door for others. He didn’t break tackles, made few big plays and dropped passes, and again, there’s depth in the backfield, even with Matt Forte gone. Look elsewhere. In a year, we’ll look back and be shocked at how many people liked Langford.

DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans: Murray could be a value pick if selected later, I suppose, but he sure looked finished last season, and it couldn’t have been all Kelly’s fault. No Titan has rushed for 600 yards in either of the past two seasons. Murray is more talented than Bishop Sankey and should reach that mark but not double it. He was a product of the Dallas O-line, and because there’s a bigger, younger, heavier fellow (the Titans spent a second-round pick on Derrick Henry), Murray could struggle to score touchdowns.

T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars: Chris Ivory was top 10 in standard running back points, and the organization went and got him for a reason. The reason is Yeldon wasn’t so good.

Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles: Even if the offensive line were passable, this guy can’t stay healthy. He has been hurt all summer.

Late RB picks to avoid: Karlos Williams, Bills; Jerick McKinnon, Vikings; Ronnie Hillman, Broncos; James Starks, Packers; C.J. Spiller, Saints; Alfred Blue, Texans.

Wide receiver

Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks: I’m a bit on the fence here because I think Baldwin’s breakout with Russell Wilson was somewhat legit, and he can be a top-20 wide receiver the conventional way, but there’s no way he’s snagging another 14 touchdown grabs. He needs a lot more targets to justify it, and that seems so unlikely. Plus, I think Tyler Lockett breaks out to a degree.

Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers: It might seem like ganging up on the NFC champs, but that’s not the case. We’re objective here, dealing in stats and value and expectations, and another 15-1 season is not happening. Benjamin will likely be selected in many leagues as if another 2014 season (nine TDs) is pending. Don’t expect that. If Newton made Ted Ginn Jr. a touchdown star, he can do it with anyone, and he doesn’t need to rely on one guy again. Carolina has far more receiver depth now than it did in ’14.

DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins: This fellow fools fantasy owners every year. Yes, he can make big plays, but the baggage -- oh, the baggage. Like Mike Wallace, another NFL organization will take a chance next year, after Jackson underachieves, misses a few games with a leg injury, complains about targets and ultimately wears out his welcome. Enjoy the 50 catches.

Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars: We have our third Jaguar, but again, it’s not personal. It’s about the changes the offense will likely make, plus the fact that Hurns is not only unlikely to score 10 touchdowns again but also unlikely to score in nine games. Always bet on the receivers with volume of receptions. Like Baldwin, Hurns just doesn't get enough targets to expect the same results.

Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings: An October find for many, but quiet and unusable in fantasy after that, Diggs isn’t a special talent, and he’s in the wrong offense to think 1,000 receiving yards. If you want to take a Vikings receiver, rookie Laquon Treadwell is the guy, but again, this offense is all about Peterson, and he isn't finished yet.

Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers: This is a golden opportunity with Martavis Bryant suspended for the season, but Wheaton isn’t Bryant. Not even close. Sammie Coates, on the other hand, could be. Plus, Antonio Brown doesn’t share much. All other targets have limited upside.

Late WR picks to avoid: Ginn, Panthers; Victor Cruz, Giants; Wallace, Ravens; Terrance Williams, Cowboys; Davante Adams, Packers; Andre Johnson, Titans.

Tight end

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots: Another staple of my annual list, and though we might be less concerned about durability at this point, the premise of the avoidance remains the same. In ESPN standard leagues, only one tight end is truly needed, though one also can use a tight end in the flex spot. One quarterback and one tight end, and with more than 10 reasonable starting options available for each spot, choosing one early is poor value. Gronkowski is a terrific, reliable player. As with Newton, I don’t question his ability to lead his position in scoring. Nor am I terribly concerned about the backup quarterback playing in September. But there’s no way I’d use a first-round pick simply to get the best option at a position, and that’s where Gronk always goes: top 10. In value-based drafting, taking the depth of the position into account, he has never ended up an overall top-10 fantasy scorer, even in the monstrous 2011 season. Think that changes in 2016?

Coby Fleener, TE, New Orleans Saints: I see why so many are excited about him. He gets to play with Drew Brees, and Brees sends targets to the tight ends. But Fleener wasn’t playing with Matt Schaub in Indianapolis, you know. It was Andrew Luck. Fleener isn’t a special talent in any offense and isn’t a lock to hold off Josh Hill, yet he’s being chosen as the No. 6 tight end and before many safer, upside-laden RBs and WRs, not to mention tight ends.

Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals: Even if he were healthy, which he most certainly is not, the touchdowns were going to drop because they always do for players of this ilk. Eifert averaged four receptions per game on fewer than six targets. He is recovering from ankle surgery and probably will miss part or all of September too. There’s rarely a need to select more than one tight end, so just wait for Round 11, take Antonio Gates and be done with it.

Finally, we see this every year, and it won’t matter what I type here, but no defense or kicker should be going in the first 10 rounds of a standard draft. Yet several are! I’ll grant you that certain defenses warrant attention prior to Round 15, including Seattle, Denver and Carolina, but their current ADP is Rounds 7 and 8. Not smart!

This also holds true for kickers. Draft them in the last round, even Stephen Gostkowski. He’s going before Jordan Matthews, Giovani Bernard and a lot of other reasonable flex options.

Alas, these are your teams, and you can select whomever you like whenever you like. We’re just trying to help!