Each year it seems to get a bit more difficult to count on the top running backs to not only perform like the stars they’re advertised to be, but to simply stay on the field. As a result, the first round of many drafts this season won’t be as running back-heavy as normal. None of this means we shouldn’t rely on running backs for fantasy success, though. For most leagues, we still need two to start each week and probably four or five just to get through a season.
So let’s finish up our three-week look at the tiered system of evaluating the top positions in the fantasy game, because preparation is key for any draft. It is considerably easier when you enter with a plan, or at the least are capable of making quick decisions, as many things can change in that time. Here’s a look at my ranking tiers for quarterbacks and wide receivers. Don’t forget about the running backs!
Tier 1: Mid-to-late Round 1
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: He’s a young man compared to me and many people reading this, but as a football player, not so much. But so what? Isn’t he different? The numbers are there every year, the floor is high and he’s safe. He might not finish first among running backs in standard leagues, which is the scoring used for this blog entry, but he was second last year. Sometimes it’s about risk.
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams: More upside than Peterson, but he’s 22. That should be the case. He’s a year further from the knee surgery, and 1,500 rushing yards seems realistic.
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals: There’s a lot to like, but we do have to remember this isn’t like Gurley’s situation. The Cardinals have a top-10 QB in Carson Palmer, three wide receivers who could be top-20 and depth at running back. Johnson didn’t even become a full-timer until November. He’s going to catch passes, which we like, but there is a potentially low floor here. We saw it in the first half of his rookie season.
Tier 2: Early Round 2
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons: The top fantasy running back for standard scoring last year, Freeman is expected to see a decrease in touches this year, which makes sense. His second-half production was hardly the same as it was in his awesome October.
Lamar Miller, Houston Texans: Miller moved from Miami into what appears to be a perfect situation, as the Texans rely on a strong running game. He also is terrific at catching passes.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys: Hotshot rookie gets the top offensive line in the sport and was a dominant player at Ohio State. We will likely see that dominance translate nicely. I can’t say anything negative here. So what if he’s only a rookie? The opportunity is golden.
Tier 3: Late Round 2
Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers: It’s not really the four-game suspension that concerns me so much. In a way, it gives his recovering knee more time to do so, which is nice. Perhaps he can be like Tom Brady, who I predict leads his position in fantasy scoring from Week 5 on. Bell is a fantasy monster. What worries me: This isn’t his first suspension. Why do we assume he’ll simply alter his off-field ways?
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints: Sure took him a while to become good, and many expect he’ll continue to improve because of the added responsibility of catching passes from Drew Brees. I’d point out he’s not the most durable fellow, but aren’t most of these guys risky?
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A year ago he seemed done. Then he’s the No. 3 RB in standard scoring. Solid player, and nobody’s ranking him as the No. 3 RB.
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs: Another knee injury to deal with, and now the Chiefs have running back depth. I don’t think Andy Reid is going to back off the touches, though. Perhaps others don’t agree.
Tier 4: Round 3
Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers: Some will never, ever invest in last year’s somewhat-default first overall pick again, even in Round 3, and that’s fine. I will. Talent is there if he’s in shape and motivated.
C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos: Some might view him as a second-half of the season option only, but there’s upside for 1,500 total yards.
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills: Nary a 20-point fantasy game last season, but a lot of pretty good ones. Probably ends up a top-10 running back if he doesn’t miss four games. But he did and, let’s be honest, I’m taking the under on 15 games again.
Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks: Surprise rookie season when he was better than Marshawn Lynch, but he's still recovering from a busted ankle and the Seahawks drafted depth. Feel like it’s 50-50 whether he’s a top-10 guy or … not even top-40. That’s a risk.
Matt Forte, New York Jets: Elite pass-catcher in 2014 remains top-10 in 2015, then switches teams when he is 30 years old. I don’t see why he can’t improve on his 2015 numbers, but 102 catches? No way. How about 60?
Tier 5: Round 4
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers: Chip Kelly is a genius! A true genius! Well, I don’t believe that, but even in a moribund offense with Blaine Gabbert handing the ball off to him, and with a tough schedule, Hyde’s upside is significant. I’m just a bit skeptical.
Matt Jones, Washington Redskins: An intriguing sleeper pick for many, including myself. But Jones is going to have to perform better in September than he did for much of his rookie season. Otherwise, the Redskins will find someone else or just throw all the time.
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers: Not a sexy fantasy option, but he was a top-20 running back despite missing games. Suspect he should duplicate each of those themes again.
Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders: Some love him to break out even more. Others are skeptical, pointing out inefficiency (4 yards per carry) and average performance the second half of the season. This rank and tier expresses my concerns.
Tier 6: Round 6
Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals: Not the follow-up season we wanted, though he appears durable, the volume is there, and he scores touchdowns. That’s about it. Upside is rookie year plus more. Downside is the bench.
Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles: Honk if you think he can play all 16 games. I don’t hear any honking. Should be productive when he’s available, but you’ve been warned.
DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans: From one awesome year to a terrible one, placing Murray in this tier acknowledges both the upside and the risk.
Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers: Think of him as purely a pass-catcher, but in standard leagues he finished 10th. Not bad, right? Not expected again, but useful. And in PPR, wow, he’s top 10.
Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts: What a bargain he’ll be in drafts. Two points from being a top-10 running back last year, and yeah, he’s not young, but a repeat is definitely possible.
Arian Foster, Miami Dolphins: Upside of a top-tier running back, but injuries he’s had (and likely will have) figure to hold him back. Still, for some, it’s a risk worth taking earlier on.
Dion Lewis, New England Patriots: Missed half the season after wrecking a knee but was clearly on a path to top-10 status in standard formats. Why can’t he do it again?
Tier 7: Round 7
DeAngelo Williams, Steelers: Bell owners will surely not wait this long to secure him. Williams can help all teams the first month, but let’s not also be so quick to presume Bell plays the final 12 games, for whatever reason.
Giovani Bernard, Bengals: Viewed as the Hill handcuff, but Bernard is unlikely to see an increase in rushing attempts regardless of what happens to Hill. Another guy to move up in PPR formats, but not as far up as Woodhead or Lewis.
Melvin Gordon, Chargers: We still await his first NFL touchdown. I expect five or so. There’s upside here, but most will ignore it because his rookie year was so unexciting.
Jeremy Langford, Chicago Bears: Opportunity is there for success, but he didn’t exactly star as a rookie, either. Likely to be overrated in drafts. Bears have options.
Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens: If you believe what he achieved in 2014 can be duplicated, move him up a tier or two. But he certainly has company in the Baltimore backfield, so if he’s not productive, he’s not playing.
Duke Johnson Jr., Cleveland Browns: Terrific receiver, still has upside as a 1,000-yard rusher.
Tier 8: Round 9
Chris Ivory, Jacksonville Jaguars: He won’t catch passes, but only four running backs rushed for more yards last season. He wasn’t brought in to sit.
T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars: Promising at times as a rookie, but Ivory being brought in tells us plenty.
Jay Ajayi, Dolphins: Similarly, the addition of Foster isn’t good news for Ajayi. But then again, odds are Foster is going to miss some games. He generally does. Wise handcuff here.
Rashad Jennings, New York Giants: You’re allowed to simply bypass all Giants running backs. Nobody would know!
Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions: Not many people rushing out to get Lions options either, but at least a few catch passes.
Kenneth Dixon, Ravens: Can make the case for other Ravens as the proper Forsett handcuff, but I like Dixon best.
Charles Sims, Buccaneers: Another standout receiver. But unless Martin struggles, limited upside.
LeGarrette Blount, Patriots: Pretty forgotten down in this tier, but he’s a starter. And it wouldn’t be shocking if he rushed for 1,000 yards and scored a half-dozen times, had more touchdowns than receptions.
Tier 9: Round 11
C.J. Prosise, Seahawks: Rawls insurance, and that’s actually decent value since Rawls isn’t a lock for September action.
Jordan Howard, Bears: The rookie should at least be involved in short yardage work, since he’s 230 pounds. But if Langford really isn’t good, Howard could be really important. Or it could be Ka’Deem Carey.
Derrick Henry, Titans: Similar situation, in theory. Big, strong rookie looking for at least goal-line touches, and with DeMarco Murray ahead of him, who knows?
Tevin Coleman, Falcons: Remember, he won the starting job over Freeman last September. Not saying this is a time share, but Coleman will be more involved this fall.
Devontae Booker, Broncos: Rookie. See a theme? If you don’t believe in Anderson, choose Booker.
DeAndre Washington Raiders: Rookie. Insert Latavius Murray for Anderson in Booker's note.
Tier 10: Round 12
Bilal Powell, Jets: This one seems strange because Forte remains productive, but the Jets want to use Powell, whose niche is also as a receiver. Seems like Ivory would be a better fit.
Javorius Allen, Ravens: Enters his second year as more receiver than traditional runner, but the starting job is open.
Isaiah Crowell, Browns: Seems more like a backup than starter, but Duke Johnson hasn’t exactly taken off yet.
Theo Riddick, Lions: Matched Woodhead with 80 receptions for the most among running backs in 2015. Little reason to believe it can’t be repeated.
Paul Perkins, Giants: Rookie doesn’t belong with the others, in theory, because Giants have someone to catch the passes already. But who knows? Jennings isn’t durable.
Darren Sproles, Eagles: He used to be an elite catcher of passes and should be used more frequently than last year, but he is not worth much in standard formats.
Wendell Smallwood, Eagles: More likely that he’s the Mathews backup, and that matters since Mathews does miss games.
Tier 11: Round 13-plus
Alfred Morris, Cowboys: Veteran backs up the hotshot rookie (Elliott), and after the veteran disappointed last year, the only reason he’s ranked is because of the standout Dallas O-line.
Keith Marshall, Redskins: If you don’t believe in Jones, Marshall is your man. He’s certainly fast.
Tim Hightower, Saints: Arguably the most valuable fantasy player during the playoffs. So yeah, he’s got something left. Saints hope they don’t need to call on him, though.
Cameron Artis-Payne, Panthers: Stewart’s backup should get more chances his sophomore season. Stewart does miss games.
Spencer Ware, Chiefs: The preferred handcuff to Charles.
Kenyan Drake, Dolphins: Big-play guy at Alabama, but it’s Ajayi’s job if and when Foster is ailing.
Tyler Ervin, Texans: Could be next in line after Lamar Miller.
Jerick McKinnon, Vikings: Should be next in line after Peterson, but don’t expect touchdowns.
Chris Thompson, Redskins: Had 35 rushing attempts and 35 receptions in 2015. Third-down guy at best.
Darren McFadden, Cowboys: Finished fourth in the NFL in rushing yards. Let that sink in. It’s why everyone loves the rookie Elliott. If McFadden can do that behind that line, imagine a better, younger, more explosive back there, and wow!
Shaun Draughn, 49ers: Not the most exciting option but should be involved.
Karlos Williams, Bills: He’s exciting, but when he had chances to start with McCoy out, he didn’t do much. And he won’t do anything the first four weeks. Can you be patient? Should you?
Ka’Deem Carey, Bears: I’d like to see him get a chance.
Stevan Ridley, Lions: To answer your question, the year was 2012 when he ran for 1,263 yards and 12 TDs. Since then, he hasn’t. But the Lions need someone to step up.
Branden Oliver, Chargers: Kinda underrated, since he’d get carries if Gordon can’t play. Woodhead’s role is set.
Reggie Bush, Bills: For old times' sake.