It was almost like Mike Babcock knew before everyone else. He was standing in a Michigan rink last summer, watching prospects play against each other when the conversation turned to Auston Matthews.
This was before Babcock declared that Matthews could be a dominant center by Christmas. This was before Matthews would score four goals in his NHL debut. This was before Matthews worked his way up the Team North America depth chart in the World Cup from extra forward to the top line with Connor McDavid.
Matthews was still a bit of an unknown last summer, an Arizona kid who played his highest level of hockey in Switzerland.
An unknown to many, but clearly not to Babcock.
The Maple Leafs coach was relayed the game plan for Matthews heading into the World Cup. He’d start on the fourth line and then the coaching staff would see how it went. The Team North America staff didn’t want to put too much pressure on the American rookie.
Matthews, Babcock said, is a driven young man who understands the game at the highest level. Mix in high-end skill, and Babcock didn’t see him spending too much time in the bottom six.
“He’s not going to take a back seat to anybody for very long,” he said, with that look in his eye, like, just wait.
Now we know.
Over the weekend, Matthews scored goals No. 37 and No. 38 of the season, equaling Neal Broten for the most goals scored by an American NHL rookie. It's a place in the record books that further validates the idea that Matthews is turning in one of the best seasons ever by an American-born rookie.
Matthews said afterwards he didn’t have a predetermined goal number in his head before the season that would have made this year a success, but he did smile when asked his thoughts about reaching 40.
“That’d be awesome,” he said.
And now, with the Leafs on the verge of clinching a playoff spot, we wait to see how Matthews performs in the postseason. Last spring, he went to a Lightning and Red Wings playoff game to see his friend Dylan Larkin. He mostly just took it in as a fan, but he noted the extra intensity and incredible atmosphere a postseason game creates.
“It’s definitely hard-nosed hockey,” he said.
Now, the only unknown is how he’ll perform in that atmosphere. But really, he’s already given us a pretty good indication. He was great for Team North America in the World Cup. He’s been great for the Maple Leafs down the stretch as the games get more important and have a playoff vibe.
As Babcock might say, there’s a good bet he’s not going to take a back seat to anybody in the postseason. Even at 19 years old.
Nothing has seemed to faze Matthews this year. Not opening his NHL career on a huge international stage. Not playing in the biggest market in the league.
He’s not overly cautious about playoff talk or about jinxing anything or about speaking out of turn. You can tell he’s excited for another opportunity to up the ante.
“It’s the best hockey. Definitely a lot of fun to watch,” Matthews said. “I’m sure it’s a lot of fun to play too.”
Nine more takeaways from the weekend of NHL hockey:
2. Goalies need to be on toes with Matthews
Goal No. 37 from Matthews on Saturday was a great example of why he’s scoring goals at such a high pace. It was a nice little give-and-go with Leo Komarov in which he was able to take a bouncing pass and roof it short side in the bat of an eye. Maybe you want the goalie to make the save there, but it happened so fast that you have to give Matthews full marks.
Zach Hyman, who has played more even strength minutes with Matthews than anyone, has seen that quick-strike ability often from Matthews this year.
“A bunch,” Hyman said. “He’s deceptive. You don’t think he has anything, and then it’s in the back of the net. Goalies have to be prepared for that stuff.”
3. Matthews' faceoff game coming together
Matthews arrived on the scene with a four-goal game, so he was already pretty good when he showed up. But Hyman has seen Matthews refine his game in ways that have helped him get the puck more often. The first is his play without the puck.
“He’s gotten a lot better,” he said. “And you can see in the results.”
The other area is in faceoffs. Matthews, like many rookies, has won less that 50 percent on the season, coming in at 46.6 percent.
But there’s been improvement. At Christmas, Matthews was winning only 44.3 percent of his faceoffs. Since January 1, Matthews has won 47.9 percent.
“That’s a huge part of the game, winning faceoffs,” Hyman said. “To have possession of the puck so he can have the puck more often.”
4. Winning when it matters
One interesting portion of Matthews' faceoff stats come on the power play. Matthews is less than 50 percent overall, but when it comes to winning power-play faceoffs, he’s been pretty good. Tyler Bozak takes a majority of the Maple Leafs' faceoffs on the power play, but when Matthews does, he’s winning at a rate of 52.7 percent.
5. Calder Trophy chances?
It’s a tight race with Patrik Laine, but if Auston Matthews reaches 40 goals, it’s going to be hard to expect anybody but him winning the Calder Trophy. Right now, Matthews has the third-highest rookie goal total since 2000, topped only by Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby. Matthews’ next goal ties Crosby from his rookie season, when the Penguins captain had 39 goals and 102 points.
6. Ovechkin mark safe
Matthews won’t be catching Alex Ovechkin though. Ovechkin had 52 goals as a rookie to go with 106 points. Crazy. Just another reminder that Ovechkin may be the best pure goal scorer to ever play the game.
7. Aho impresses under the radar
A little further down that rookie list this year is Carolina’s Sebastian Aho, who has quietly turned in a really good season. He won’t finish as a Calder finalist, not with Zach Werenski and Matthew Tkachuk also around, but Aho’s 23 goals equal the rookie goal totals of guys like Steven Stamkos, Jeff Carter and Larkin.
“It’s impressive, the way he gets through traffic,” said one NHL scout this weekend of Aho. “He’s a second-round pick. Anytime you can have success like that, it really helps with the depth.”
8. Leafs getting closer on Zaitzev deal
Bob McKenzie and TSN reported last week that Maple Leafs defenseman Nikita Zaitsev and the Leafs were discussing a seven-year contract extension that could be worth around $4.5 million annually.
According to a source close to those negotiations, there is nothing concrete done yet, but the two sides are expected to continue talks this week.
A seven-year deal would put Zaitsev in the same company as young defensemen like John Klingberg and Oscar Klefbom, both of whom signed major extensions without a ton of NHL experience. Zaitsev has played a total of 77 games but clearly has earned Mike Babcock’s trust while averaging 22:17 of ice time per game, often against tough competition. If there’s anyone who knows how hard it is to find effective, young, right-handed shot defensemen, it’s Babcock. He never found one in Detroit.
9. Bracket watch is on for Toronto
Toronto players are in just-make-the-playoffs mode, so they’re not too concerned about who they play against. Right now, it would be the Bruins -- and the Leafs have a 4-0 record against Boston. Still, even with a 1-1-2 record against the Senators, that might be the better matchup.
“It’s like March Madness, you’re looking at what could be,” said defenseman Connor Carrick. “There’s X amount of scenarios. We want to know what the scenario is going to be.”
10. Leafs had sights set on playoffs all along
Now that we’ve seen the impressive rookie collection, it’s easy to understand why Toronto is so close to clinching a playoff spot. It’s also easy to forget how few people gave them a shot at making the postseason this year.
Internally? The players absolutely believed, according to Carrick. They were just very careful early on to express those thoughts.
“It’s something we talked about internally and tried to keep it with our group,” Carrick said when we chatted on Saturday. “There was no secret to us, but you didn’t want it blowing up, like [Mark] Messier calling it. It was not needed. The thought process from Day 1 was, we have a talented group, some D-men who can play, great goaltending -- let’s go for it.”