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          Craig Custance Blog

          Checking in on the goalie trade market

          For teams that are in need of an NHL-caliber goaltender, it may be worth calling Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff about Ondrej Pavelec. Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

          The saga of Jacob Trouba has been at the center of the league’s trade speculation, but it’s quite possible he won't be the first Jet to get moved this season. As outlined by my colleague Pierre LeBrun on Thursday, general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff, already known for his patience, isn’t rushing this. In other words, it could take a while.

          But as that drags out, goalies are starting to go down. The Los Angeles Kings lost Jonathan Quick for three months with a groin injury, and are now turning to Jeff Zatkoff and Peter Budaj. The Arizona Coyotes' Mike Smith is day to day with a leg injury.

          Meanwhile, the Jets have a perfectly capable NHL goalie in Ondrej Pavelec playing in the AHL after they opted to keep Connor Hellebuyck and Michael Hutchinson in the NHL.

          Pavelec, to his credit, reported to the AHL like a pro and has already played in two games, generating a .918 save percentage.

          For teams looking to patch a hole in goal, he may be the best option out there. According to a source, the Jets have already received calls on Pavelec inquiring on price. The calls have been more of the tire-kicking variety, and nothing is close, but teams are definitely checking in.

          “You could probably get him at half price and you get somebody who has been in the league,” said one Western Conference executive this week.

          The "half price" is the key here. Pavelec is in the last year of his contract that comes with a salary cap charge of $3.9 million. If you can convince the Jets to keep half the salary, that knocks his cap hit down to $1.95 million. Pavelec has been inconsistent throughout his career and the Jets made the right call to go young in goal, but he’s also proven he can play at a high level for stretches, which makes him certainly worth a shot when his price is less than $2 million.

          There are other factors to consider, too. For budget teams, Pavelec’s actual salary might be a hangup. He’s being paid $4.75 million this season in a deal that escalated each year.

          According to a Coyotes source, they currently are not in the goalie market and remain hopeful that Smith’s injury isn’t too serious. But Pavelec’s salary increase would impact a team like Arizona where real dollars matter.

          As for the Kings, they’re squeezed against the cap, so that’s another thing to consider, one of the reasons GM Dean Lombardi and his staff are expected to be patient.

          “I don’t think there’s any panic there yet,” said one source of the Kings.

          It’s still early.

          #CustanceCorrespondence

          Living in Detroit, I hear Trouba’s name a lot, and he’s exactly what this team needs. I just don’t see a fit from the Jets’ perspective. For this trade to happen, Winnipeg would have to change its asking price fairly dramatically, because there’s not a comparable left-shot defenseman in Detroit that would make sense.

          As much as the Red Wings would love Trouba, I don’t see a match.

          Cam Fowler is more realistic and may even be the preference for some in the organization. Detroit has top-six forwards who might tempt the Anaheim Ducks. The challenge is money. If the Ducks are trading Fowler, they’re doing it to clear cap space, and it doesn’t help the cause if Detroit builds a deal around, say, Tomas Tatar ($2.75 million cap hit) or Gustav Nyquist ($4.75 million).

          They could help the cause by taking back a salary like Clayton Stoner's ($3.25 million this season and next), but now you’re talking about over $7 million in salary heading to Detroit with Fowler factored in. The Red Wings are currently up against the salary cap.

          Like most teams right now, they’d have to look at a deal that is dollar-in and dollar-out, something that doesn’t necessarily benefit the Ducks. Now, if the Wings can find a taker for Jimmy Howard at full price ...

          I like this question because it means I get to use leftwinglock.com’s Line Production tool, one of my favorite fantasy hockey resources around.

          According to leftwinglock, the line of David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and David Backes has been the most productive, with seven goals in the early going. I’m just not sure how much time together it’s going to get with Patrice Bergeron back in the lineup.

          The trio I’m surprised to see near the top is in Carolina, where Lee Stempniak, Victor Rask and Jeff Skinner have combined for four goals and haven’t allowed a goal against. When they’re on the ice, the Hurricanes control 56.8 percent of the shot attempts.

          Is there a guy who goes about his business with less fanfare than Stempniak? Since leaving the Flames in 2013-14, he’s played for six different teams and just keeps on producing. He has three goals in four games for the Hurricanes. Carolina was smart to sign him to a two-year deal, but you just know he’s going to end up in Las Vegas next season, don’t you? Which brings us to our next question ...

          This is a great question because it hints that this trade deadline might be different than years past because of the expansion draft. Typically, teams aren’t trying to add any players with term on their deal at the deadline. Rentals are the commodity of choice.

          But with an expansion draft looming, GMs might try to kill two birds with one stone by trading for a guy they can expose in the draft.

          A refresher: Teams will have to expose at least one defenseman and two forwards under contract for next season who will have played in either 40 games this season or a combination of 70 games this season and last.

          That provides extra value to a player who might be able to help down the stretch and into the playoffs while also providing the ability to fit that qualification (and thus be exposed).

          It’s way to early to throw out names because we don’t know buyers and sellers, but let’s say the Coyotes drop out of the race and become sellers. They have a defenseman in Luke Schenn who is cheap, signed for next season and should qualify himself to fulfill a team’s defenseman requirement. Doesn’t that make him worth a little extra at the trade deadline?

          You know that at some point a team is going to make a trade just to get itself compliant for the expansion draft. We just don’t know if that happens during the season or after.

          I love this question because the influx of talent we’ve received in the NHL from the top of the draft the past two seasons has completely changed the NHL.

          Connor McDavid landing in Edmonton transformed that franchise from a punchline to a destination. Jack Eichel to Buffalo completely justified GM Tim Murray’s very public teardown of the Sabres.

          Auston Matthews puts the best young American player in the biggest Canadian market. He gives Mike Babcock the franchise center he hasn’t had since Pavel Datsyuk in his prime.

          And Patrik Laine gives the Jets the high-end, game-changing talent that perfectly complements the depth of young players they’ve collected over the years.

          So when is the most recent top four that stacks up with those four? Great question.

          Candidate 1: 2009-10. At the top of those two drafts you’re bringing in Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, John Tavares and Victor Hedman. Not bad. Tavares and Seguin are both franchise center material. Hedman provides something the past two drafts haven’t: a franchise defenseman. This one is in the conversation.

          Candidate 2: 2008-09. Steven Stamkos, Drew Doughty, John Tavares and Victor Hedman. Four franchise cornerstones. Quite possibly four Hall of Famers. This is probably your answer, although McDavid may end up better than any of them.

          Candidate 3: 2004-05. Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby and Bobby Ryan. Ryan throws this one off a little just because he’s not the franchise-changing player that the others are. But at the same time, he’s a guy who has four 30-goal seasons on his resume and will eclipse 250 for his career at some point in the next couple of seasons. It’s not out of the question that his production tops one of the four taken in the past two years. Crosby provides the generational comparison to McDavid.

          Conclusion: If we’re trying to find the most recent 1-2-1-2 combination that is as good, give me that 2008-09 stretch. All four of those players (Stamkos, Doughty, Tavares, Hedman) are the kind you can win a Stanley Cup building around. The Lightning are lucky to have two of them.