The deal
Ottawa Senators get: Dion Phaneuf, Matt Frattin, Casey Bailey, Ryan Rupert and Cody Donaghey
Toronto Maple Leafs get: Jared Cowen, Colin Greening, Milan Michalek, Tobias Lindberg, 2017 second-round pick
Ottawa Senators: B
The Senators' defense behind Erik Karlsson has been a disaster for most of this season, and Phaneuf goes a long way in stabilizing it. He’s not a defenseman who is worth the $7 million cap space he’ll eat up through 2020-21, but he is still a legitimate second-pairing defenseman, and an upgrade over anyone else on the roster aside from Karlsson.
To his credit, Maple Leafs coach Mike Babcock gave Phaneuf easier minutes this season, and he has been effective in a role as a second-pair defenseman with Jake Gardiner. With Karlsson around, he won’t be asked to be the top defenseman in Ottawa nor will he be saddled with responsibilities as captain.
These are all positives for Phaneuf.
“He’ll be fine in that role,” one NHL scout said on Tuesday after the trade. “He can play a complementary role instead of a go-to role. He doesn’t have to try and do too much as long as they can rein him in a little. He won’t be asked to score. He’ll be asked to defend. He’s capable in a second pairing.”
The concern is the money. Defensemen age better than forwards so, at 30 years old, Phaneuf still has a few years remaining in this role. But if there’s any regression and he slips into a bottom-pair spot, that cap hit will be even more of a problem.
According to ESPN Insider prospect guru Corey Pronman, none of the players the Senators received with Phaneuf and Frattin project as NHL players.
Pronman on Bailey: “He’s been a solid third-line forward on the best team in the AHL this season. Big man with solid hands, has some grind in his game, but his speed isn’t that great.”
On Rupert: “Rupert has a fine combination of skill and hockey sense and works hard, but given his very small stature and lack of dynamic skill, it’s hard to see him as more than an AHLer.”
And on Donaghey: “He’s a good puck mover with impressive vision, but his defensive game is quite subpar. Until that part of his tool kit takes big steps forward, he's just a minor leaguer.”
Toronto Maple Leafs: A-
The Leafs did a fantastic job rehabilitating the image of Phaneuf to a point where they were able to trade him without retaining any salary, a huge consideration in this deal. Babcock arrived in Toronto and immediately praised Phaneuf and his leadership. He put him in position to succeed and re-established his value as a top-four defenseman.
In the short term, the cap charges of Cowen ($3.1 million), Michalek ($4 million) and Greening ($1.7 million) wipe out any savings created by trading Phaneuf, but all three of those players come off the books after next season. Cowen is a strong buyout candidate after this season.
“They’re not getting anything back there that they’re going to like,” the scout said of Cowen. “I know Ottawa turned south on him. They’ll be happy that he’s gone.”
This is a long-term play that allows Toronto to pursue Steven Stamkos or any other high-profile free agent in the next couple of seasons. This Maple Leafs management group has cleared David Clarkson, Phil Kessel and now Phaneuf from the decks, a to-do list that came with a high degree of difficulty.
They also get a player in Lindberg who may be the only prospect in this deal who finds his way into the NHL on a regular basis.
“The best prospect exchanged in this deal,” said Pronman, who highlighted Lindberg's performance in the Memorial Cup last spring. “He has size, skill and above-average hockey IQ. He’s played both special teams units for Binghamton this season. ... He has top-nine forward potential.”
With this trade, the rebuilding Maple Leafs now have six total picks in the first two rounds of the next two NHL drafts.
In picking up Michalek, they get another player who could have trade value at the 2017 trade deadline, so it’s not unreasonable to project they’ll get another draft pick out of this package.