Teammates knew that Justin Turner wanted to stay with the Dodgers. In fact, he didn’t bother pretending that he might seriously consider offers from other teams. Turner never cleaned out his locker after the close of the 2016 season and continued to work out at Dodger Stadium.
But despite having almost no competing bidders, despite the fact that he just turned 32, despite some knee trouble in 2015, Turner still got a four-year, $64 million deal from the Dodgers. Just imagine what some of the other third basemen are going to get when they reach the open market in the next couple of years, because the position is loaded with a lot of young stars who are nearing free agency -- Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson among others.
In Part VI of our positional rankings, we present the top 10 third basemen, based on the input from MLB evaluators:
1. Kris Bryant
There was wide range of opinion among scouts and executives about who should be in the No. 1 spot here. Some picked Nolan Arenado, because of what they regard as his peerless defense at the position. Others suggested Donaldson, because he has been the model of production among third basemen. Machado was second on most lists.
But Bryant is the pick here because of his seeming potential to do even more damage than he did last season, when he won the NL MVP award and became a historic power hitter. With 306 games in his career, Bryant has 65 homers, 208 runs and an adjusted OPS+ of 142, which puts him in the same neighborhood as Mike Piazza and Harmon Killebrew. In his first two seasons in the big leagues, he accumulated 13.6 in WAR, which is the highest ever. No. 2? Frank Robinson, at 13.4. Ted Williams is third at 13.0.
Cubs staffers are confident that he’ll continue to improve because of how much he loves what he does.
“He doesn’t have a lot of interests outside of baseball,” said one evaluator. “He loves to talk about baseball.”
Baseball and hitting. His swing-and-miss rate dropped from 16.5 percent in his first year to 13 percent last season, and his strikeout rate plummeted from 30.6 percent in 2015 to 22 percent in 2016.
His great hidden skill is his baserunning, which was difference-making in games all the way through the World Series. Bryant ranked sixth among all major leaguers in one baserunning efficiency metric.
Bryant is regarded as an average defender, and an argument could be made for Machado or Arenado for the No. 1 spot based on how well-rounded they are. But last year, Bryant rated 8.4 fWAR, easily the best among third basemen.
2. Manny Machado
Once his arbitration case is settled this winter, he’ll double the earnings he’s made in his big league career to date and will be well-positioned to wait out the last two years before his free agency. Then, barring injury, Machado will be up for auction at age 26 -- about the same age as his childhood idol, Alex Rodriguez, when A-Rod got his record $252 million deal from Texas -- and Machado will get one of the largest contracts, a megadeal for all that he does well: the hitting, the power, the defense.
Machado had 78 extra-base hits last season among his 188 hits and had an .876 OPS. He has won two Gold Gloves, backed by excellent defensive metrics. Because of his two major injuries early in his career, there were concerns about Machado’s durability, but with both knees repaired, he’s missed only five games the last two years, and those were because of suspension.
When J.J. Hardy went down with injury last season, Machado filled in ably at shortstop, the position he played in most of his first 20 years. So Machado will be able to consider his options and offers for two positions, which will only increase his already significant leverage.
3. Nolan Arenado
His walk total doubled last season, to 68, his strikeouts went down, and year to year, his rate of fly balls increases -- and if you play your home games in Coors Field, there’s a good chance you’ll be rewarded for that kind of improvement.
Arenado’s groundball-flyball rate in his first four seasons:
2013: 1.26
2014: 0.90
2015: 0.78
2016: 0.75
Sarah Langs of ESPN Stats & Information sent this note along: Over the last two years, Arenado became only the eighth player to lead his league in homers and RBI in consecutive seasons.
He scored 116 runs last season, drove in 133, pummeled 82 of his 182 hits for extra bases, and his defensive metrics are unmatched. From 2013 to 2016, he has the most defensive runs saved (DRS) for any third baseman, with 84, and he’s won a Gold Glove in each of his four seasons.
He’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2018 season.
4. Josh Donaldson
He played through hip injury down the stretch last season, demonstrating the competitiveness and will that help distinguish him. Donaldson has scored 426 runs over the last four seasons, with 284 extra-base hits. Only Mike Trout compiled a better fWAR from the 2013 to 2016 seasons than Donaldson. With Edwin Encarnacion and possibly Jose Bautista out the door, Donaldson will have to play an even more integral role for the trimmed-down Toronto offense, at a time when he continues to gain more plate discipline. He racked up 109 walks last season, while his pitches per plate appearance jumped to a career-best 4.22 in 2016.
Donaldson’s defensive metrics have declined markedly over the last couple of seasons, with his DRS dipping from 20 in 2014 to 2 last season.
Donaldson, like Machado, is eligible for free agency after the 2018 season.
5. This could be the year that Beltre finally gets all the recognition that he deserves, as he closes in on milestones that are usually rewarded with Hall of Fame election. Beltre needs 58 more hits for 3,000, just nine more doubles for 600, five more homers for 450, 72 runs for 1,500 and 29 RBIs for 1,600. As with David Ortiz, Beltre seems to be closing in on the end of his career with a flourish as one of the elite players at his position. Last year, Beltre rated a 6.1 in fWAR, fourth-best in the majors among third basemen, and even at age 37, Beltre continues to be an unorthodox but exceptional defender, compiling 15 defensive runs saved and making just 10 errors.
From Sarah: Beltre has generated 45.7 WAR since his age-31 season (2010), 18th-highest total all time for a player from age-31 season onward. The names ahead of him: Barry Bonds, Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Cap Anson, Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Stan Musial, Ty Cobb, Ted Williams, Roberto Clemente, Edgar Martinez, Mike Schmidt, Eddie Collins, Luke Appling, Joe Morgan. Not a bad list.
6. In his age-30 season in 2016, Longoria had one of the best offensive seasons of his career. He played 160 games -- the fourth consecutive year in which he played at least 160 games -- and bashed 36 homers among 81 extra-base hits, for a .521 slugging percentage. Longoria was more aggressive at the plate, with his walk total and OBP dropping. His swing rate on pitches outside of the zone climbed to 34.2 percent, the highest of his career. Longoria’s big year in 2016, said Rays GM Erik Neander, was “Evan being Evan. There’s nobody better at controlling what they can control. When you combine that with his talent, work ethic and overall good health, this is how he produces and how he’ll continue to produce.”
Longoria’s defensive metrics declined, with his defensive runs saved dropping to minus-9.
He is signed through 2022, for a total of $99 million, and the Rays hold a club option for 2023.
7. Kyle Seager
In the midst of the 2016 season, he joked that his younger brother Corey is so good that he’s not sure the two of them are related. Rest assured, Kyle is one of the best at his position in the big leagues and seemingly reaching the peak of his career. Last year, he achieved career-highs in homers (30), OPS (.859), runs (89) and walks (69), and the addition of Jean Segura to the top of the Seattle lineup could put him in even better position to do damage in 2017.
Pirates manager Clint Hurdle says that the best lineup protection comes before a hitter, because runners on base box in the opposing pitcher and catcher in their decision-making, and as the Mariners have improved at the top of the lineup, Seager gets more and more opportunities.
Plate appearances with runners in scoring position:
2012: 157
2013: 144
2014: 163
2015: 173
2016: 175
8. Justin Turner
The Dodgers paid well to bring him back because he’s become an indispensable part of their offensive attack. He finished ninth in the NL MVP voting last year, with a strong second half. After June 12, Turner batted .307 with 22 homers in 91 games, and Dodgers staffers thought that his defense was much-improved in 2016, following his knee surgery.
9. He suffered an ACL tear and missed all but 27 games last season, temporarily derailing the development he had as a hitter in 2015, when he began hitting to the opposite field with consistency. The 28-year-old Moustakas has a lot on the line this year as he is set to reach free agency in the fall.
10. Jose Ramirez
The Indians’ plan going into 2016 was for Juan Uribe to take the bulk of the at-bats at third base, with Jose Ramirez filling in at different spots. But when Uribe seemed to reach the end of his effectiveness, Terry Francona turned to Ramirez, and the switch-hitter became an incredibly important part of what Cleveland accomplished. He batted .355 with runners in scoring position, with 14 extra-base hits, 13 walks and 19 strikeouts in those situations. Ramirez stole 22 bases and was third among all major leaguers (behind Mookie Betts and Trout) in one metric that measures baserunning efficiency.
Honorable mention
Anthony Rendon: Evaluators have tons of respect for his talent, and he finished fifth in the NL MVP voting in 2014. But he didn’t hit his first homer until May 3 last season, and he tends to be streaky.
Todd Frazier: The White Sox have made him available, and he’ll be playing somewhere else by August, because his power and energy is valued highly. Frazier, who turns 31 next month, has 104 homers the last three seasons.
Maikel Franco: His power is awesome, but evaluators wonder about the attention to detail in his at-bats -- his OBP dropped to .306 last season -- and wonder if he’ll do better as the team around him becomes more competitive.
Alex Bregman: The Astros’ infielder will puncture the top 10 some year soon, at some position, but he’s got just 201 big league at-bats and plays a position loaded with stars. He batted .313 in his last 39 games last season, with his turnaround corresponding to the No. 2 spot in the Houston lineup.
Jake Lamb: He destroyed right-handed pitching last season, posting an .898 OPS, with 25 homers in 465 plate appearances, but he really struggled against lefties, hitting .164.