In time, we’ll know if the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks have enough pitching to challenge the preeminence of the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants at the top of the National League West. Colorado probably has the best collection of young power arms it has ever put together, and Arizona's young arms are good enough to hold up the back end of the Diamondbacks’ rotation if Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller are capable enough of leading the way.
Regardless of whether they are contenders for the playoffs, however, the Rockies and Diamondbacks will make existence in the NL West difficult for the Dodgers and Giants, based on the strength of their offenses. “The toughest road trip in baseball is through Colorado,” one evaluator said last summer. “The worst.”
Pitchers get pounded, bullpens are taxed, visiting players strain playing in the mile-high conditions. With A.J. Pollock restored to the Arizona lineup this year, the journeys through Phoenix could be almost as challenging, an ongoing toll for the traditional NL West powers.
Based on the input of evaluators, the Rockies and Diamondbacks are ranked among the top 10 lineups in the latest in our ongoing series. But it starts with the team that led the majors in run production last season, and expects to again, even after a big loss to its lineup.
The big dog: Mookie Betts, who led the majors in total bases last season. The context for his plate appearances will change completely in 2017, because unless David Ortiz reverses course and comes out of retirement, Betts won’t have Big Papi batting behind him and impacting the thinking of opposing pitchers, catchers and managers.
The big concern: Ortiz had the greatest career-ending season of any player in history, so yes, he will be missed. The Boston lineup cannot be as good without him as it was last year, when the Red Sox led the majors in runs by far. And in a lineup that has a lot of right-handed hitters, Ortiz was the best left-handed hitter, and the Red Sox need others to step up and provide that balance.
The big variables: Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. After the Red Sox spent $183 million on the pair as free agents, their struggles in 2015 contributed to the front-office overhaul in which David Dombrowski was hired to oversee baseball operations and then GM Ben Cherington left the organization. Ramirez came back to have a really nice 2016 season, with 30 homers and 111 RBIs, and the Red Sox are hopeful that Sandoval can contribute as the third baseman in 2017 after greatly improving his conditioning.
2. Colorado Rockies
The big Dog: Nolan Arenado, who has compiled 706 total bases, 83 homers and 263 RBIs over the past two seasons. Yes, the majority of that has been in Denver -- 45 homers, 390 total bases, 155 RBIs -- but the 25-year-old Arenado just gets better and better.
His OPS year-to-year:
2013: .706
2014: .828
2015: .898
2016: .932
His declining rate of swinging at pitches outside the strike zone:
2013: 41.6 percent
2014: 38.0 percent
2015: 38.5 percent
2016: 34.2 percent
The big concern: Ian Desmond’s successful transition to first base, a position he has never played before. If that occurs smoothly and all of the outfield pieces can remain in place -- Charlie Blackmon in center field, flanked by Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl and Gerardo Parra -- this lineup will have incredible depth.
The big variable: The strikeouts in the middle of the Colorado lineup. With Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Gonzalez and Arenado hitting in the top half of the batting order, there are going to be a ton of opportunities with runners on base for those who follow. Trevor Story had an excellent rookie season before he got hurt, but he does strike out a lot -- 130 in 415 plate appearances in 2016 -- and so does Desmond (160 in 677 plate appearances for Texas in ’16) and Dahl (59 in 222 at-bats). Especially against the best relievers late in games, it will be interesting to see how the Colorado boppers fare.
3. Chicago Cubs
The big dogs: Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, who are the David Ortiz and the Manny Ramirez of their era. They could haunt pitchers for many years to come, and last season they combined for 346 hits, 78 doubles, seven triples, 71 homers, 149 walks, 215 runs and 211 RBIs. On a daily basis, the relentlessly competitive at-bats of Bryant, Rizzo, Ben Zobrist and Kyle Schwarber will crush opposing starters.
The big concern: Jason Heyward, who was everything the Cubs thought he would be on defense, in his baserunning and as a teammate -- and nothing like they had hoped at the plate. Heyward had by far the worst season of his career at the plate, mustering only seven homers and a .306 on-base percentage despite the fact external pressures were minimized. The Cubs won big and scored a ton in spite of his struggles. The internal pressures probably manifested along the way for a player who has always been wholly accountable, and as he works through his offseason adjustments, it will probably be important for him to get off to a decent start.
The big variable: Schwarber is ready to step back into the every-day lineup after his knee rehabilitation and his remarkable comeback in last year’s World Series, and he could provide immediate and devastating power at the top of the Cubs’ lineup.
The big dog: Jose Altuve, at 5-foot-6 and 165 pounds. If you want to know what the start of a Hall of Famer’s career looks like, consider the first seasons for Altuve -- already he has three seasons of 200 or more hits and 40 or more doubles, and he has accumulated 1,046 hits -- and he’s 26 years old.
The big concern: The Astros paid a lot to add depth and balance to their lineup, grabbing left-handed hitters Josh Reddick and Brian McCann and switch-hitter Carlos Beltran to pair with their young right-handed hitters. But the newcomers don’t come without some risk. There was surprise in some corners of the industry over Houston’s investment in Reddick, who has a .534 OPS against left-handed pitchers the past three seasons. McCann turns 33 next month and is nearing the typical expiration date for every-day catchers, and Beltran, who turns 40 in April, is in the last chapter(s) of his career. If this trio complements the up-and-coming hitters in the batting order, it will be a devastating attack.
The big variable: Evaluators foresee a time when Carlos Correa will be one of the game’s best power hitters. There’s going to be a year when he has a big breakout and shows 40-homer power.
The big dog: Nelson Cruz has 127 homers over the past three years, and Kyle Seager had his first 30-homer season in 2016. But to borrow a phrase about Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson, Robinson Cano is the straw that stirs the drink for Seattle. His rebound from an injury-filled 2015 season altered the Seattle offense, and with his .533 slugging percentage and 103 RBIs, he finished eighth in the AL MVP race.
The big variable: The Mariners have tons of thump in their middle of their lineup, with Cano, Cruz and Seager. To that, Seattle has added speed -- shortstop Jean Segura and outfielder Jarrod Dyson, who combined for 63 steals last season.
The big concern: Whoever gets the at-bats at first base for the Mariners will probably bat sixth or seventh and get a lot of plate appearances with runners on base, following Cano, Cruz and Seager. The Mariners traded Mike Montgomery for Cubs first-base prospect and left-handed hitter Daniel Vogelbach -- and Seattle is devoted to the idea of developing a couple of young players -- and grabbed right-handed hitter Danny Valencia, who has had extraordinary production.
The big dog: The Indians finished second to the Red Sox in runs scored among American League teams last season, and this winter, Cleveland added slugger Edwin Encarnacion, who has 193 homers over the past five years.
The big concern: Terry Francona said repeatedly that the 2016 Indians were the best baserunning team he had ever had, and two of the most instrumental forces in that, outfielder Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli, won’t be back. Time will tell if Cleveland will be as opportunistic.
The big variable: Michael Brantley, who continues to try to work his way back from shoulder trouble. He finished third in the AL MVP voting in 2014 before shoulder problems began to seriously manifest in 2015, and he played only 11 games last year. The Indians are hopeful he’ll return to the lineup regularly this season, but every time he ramped up to game speed in 2016, he had setbacks.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
The big dog: Paul Goldschmidt, who has twice finished second for the NL MVP Award. He’ll be helped by the return of A.J. Pollock to the lineup, and by Arizona’s possible return to relevance from a disastrous 2016.
The big concern: Pollock missed all but 12 games last year after fracturing his elbow, and the Diamondbacks need him to get back to being an All-Star caliber performer. Pollock hit .315, stole 39 bases and scored 111 runs in 2015.
The big variable: Yasmany Tomas hit .294 with 18 homers in the second half last season and if he can continue to build off that, through the conditioning work he has done this winter, the middle of the Arizona lineup will be daunting.
The big dog: Daniel Murphy hit .347 and led the NL in slugging percentage and OPS last year, and finished second in the voting for the league’s MVP. Murphy built on the progress he made as a hitter in 2015, when he added power on top of his skills as a contact hitter. In 876 plate appearances since Aug. 2, 2015 -- including those in the postseason -- Murphy has 115 extra-base hits and 40 homers. With Trea Turner and Adam Eaton likely to fill the bases in front of Murphy all year, the second baseman’s production could reach an apex in 2017.
The big concern: First baseman Ryan Zimmerman is coming off the worst season of his career, and the Nationals will likely see a diminishment in production at catcher, given the departure of Wilson Ramos. Derek Norris and Jose Lobaton are expected to share at-bats behind the plate.
The big variable: Bryce Harper, who has ranged from being baseball’s most dangerous hitter in 2015 to one who ranked 58th among all hitters in OPS in 2016. If Harper reverts to what he was in 2015, as expected, the Nationals will have the firepower behind Eaton and Turner to have the league’s best offense.
The big dog: With the addition of Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter -- the anchor of the St. Louis attack, with the quality of his at-bats and his power -- will move down in the St. Louis lineup, to the No. 2 or No. 3 spot. Over the past two years, Carpenter ranks 14th among all majormleague hitters in the metric wRC+, which measures runs created.
The big concern: The Cardinals struggled to hit homers in 2015 and so loaded up on power for 2016 and finished fourth in runs -- but the lineup changes greatly impacted the team’s defense and pitching. Now St. Louis has refocused on defense and athleticism, and presumably the team’s home run total and run production will diminish. To what degree, we will see.
The big variables: The 26-year-old Kolten Wong and 25-year-old Randal Grichuk. The Cardinals have believed in both, signing Wong to a long-term deal and giving Grichuk regular playing time the past couple of seasons. Now St. Louis needs both to evolve into more effective hitters -- Grichuk had a .289 on-base percentage last season, with 141 strikeouts, and Wong basically lost his every-day job in 2016, starting only 71 games at second base.
10. Detroit Tigers
The big dog: Miguel Cabrera, of course. Some reminders of just how amazing he has been: Cabrera is a plodding right-handed hitter and he has a .321 batting average for his career and a .399 on-base percentage. He needs only 14 extra-base hits to reach 1,000.
The big concern: The Tigers signaled to the rest of the industry and their fans their effort to reduce payroll, through the intended deals of pricey veterans such as J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler and Victor Martinez. Detroit hasn’t had luck in making that happen, and a question hovering over the Tigers as spring training and the regular season approaches is whether the team would move Kinsler or J.D. Martinez, who are each important to the offense.
The big variables: Justin Upton and Nick Castellanos. Both players can be streaky and when they are swinging well, this is a very deep, dangerous batting order.
Honorable mention
Los Angeles Dodgers: As their exceptional platoons were established, they ranked sixth in the National League in runs after the All-Star break. The health of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and catcher Yasmani Grandal will be pivotal.
Texas Rangers: Since the end of last season, Ian Desmond and Mitch Moreland have departed and the Rangers seem to be waiting to fill lineup holes, perhaps with the likes of Mike Napoli. As the team is set up now, the Rangers would have to see continued development in their core youngsters -- Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo.
Atlanta Braves: After the trade for Matt Kemp and the promotion of Dansby Swanson, the Braves’ attack transformed. Atlanta ranked sixth in the majors in runs after the All-Star break.
Baltimore Orioles: They still have holes to fill this winter, around Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Chris Davis.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays finished ninth in runs in 2016, but that was with Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders, who became free agents and went off the roster. Toronto added Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce, but still has at least one and maybe two moves to make, and it’s possible the Jays will re-sign Bautista, eventually.
Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates need a rebound from Andrew McCutchen and for Jung Ho Kang to work through his off-field issues and be a regular part of the lineup.