Last season, Chris Carter did some big, old-school damage while serving as the first baseman for the Milwaukee Brewers: 41 homers, 27 doubles, 94 RBIs. He also generated a fair number of walks with 76 and played in 160 games.
After all of that, Carter was cut -- outright released before free agency, presumably after the Brewers assessed his value in the market. He’s currently unemployed with his case demonstrating that the industry's expectations of what a first baseman needs to be have changed markedly over time. Mere power isn't good enough anymore.
In Part III of our top 10 positional rankings, we present the first basemen, with lots of input from baseball evaluators -- and there is a much broader range of opinion on who should be No. 1 than with the starting pitchers (Clayton Kershaw) and relievers (Zach Britton). Five first basemen were nominated at No. 1 by various scouts and executives. Five.
1. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
He was hitting .242 on June 12 last season, and then Freeman had an epiphany, because of timing or circumstance. He was not going to swing at bad pitches anymore; he was going to swing at strikes. It was the sort of thing all hitters say to themselves all the time, but for Freeman, the commitment to discipline remained for the rest of the season, and he wrecked pitchers. Freeman hit .340 after June 12, with 33 doubles, five triples and 25 homers, an OPS of 1.104, and because of this surge, Freeman finished sixth in the NL MVP voting despite playing on a team that wasn't in contention last season. Evaluators regard him as a solid defender –- maybe not at the level of Anthony Rizzo or Eric Hosmer, but pretty good.
Among all first basemen last season, Freeman was the runaway winner in fWAR:
Freeman -- 6.1
Rizzo -- 5.2
Joey Votto -- 5.0
Miguel Cabrera -- 4.9
"He was a monster offensive player in a tough hitters' park, playing most of the year with almost nobody else in his lineup," one evaluator said.
If you ranked the top five first basemen according to their career resumes, Freeman would be at No. 5. If you ranked them according to the trajectory established in 2016, and what they could be expected to produce in 2017, then Freeman is No. 1.
2. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
On May 23, Votto was hitting .203 with a .351 slugging percentage. But thereafter, he demonstrated again that he is one of the elite offensive players in the majors, reaching base 232 times in his final 113 games. All told, Votto reached base 304 times last season, the fourth year he has reached base at least 299 times. In 2016, he had an on-base percentage of .434, a slugging percentage of .500 and led all first baseman in wRC+, a metric that measures runs created, at 158.
Votto's perspective on hitting is in concert with front offices throughout baseball: The more you get on base, the better your chances of scoring a run. And when Votto is healthy, nobody gets on base more than he does. With power.
3. Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
He might be baseball's best problem solver, someone with an exceptional ability to make adjustments. He really struggled against inside fastballs at the outset of his career, a flaw that probably made the Padres more willing to move him to the Cubs in the trade for Andrew Cashner. But Rizzo got better at that and eventually moved to take away the inside part of the plate almost entirely from opposing pitchers by moving so close to the front of the batter's box that his arms can hover over the strike zone -- with the conviction that if he got hit by a pitch as opponents tried to work him inside, well, that's the cost of business.
Last year, he reached base 260 times, with 79 extra-base hits and 94 runs scored. Sure, he probably benefited from the strong hitters in front of him –- Dexter Fowler and Kris Bryant filled the bases ahead of him and often forced opposing pitchers to deal with Rizzo, rather than pitch around him –- but the hitting conditions in Wrigley Field are difficult, more often than not. Forget about the dimensions: When the wind is blowing in, it’s an acute pitchers' park, which is probably why 20 of Rizzo's 32 homers were on the road.
He is regarded by evaluators as the pre-eminent defender at his position, with exceptional hands and a strong ability to throw and make plays. "Nobody is more active than he is on defense [at first base]," one evaluator said.
4. Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks
Some evaluators pegged him at No. 1 on this list because of how well-rounded he is: a winner of two Gold Gloves in 2013 and 2015, an opportunistic baserunner with a career-high 32 steals last year and, of course, the power and production. But Goldschmidt's offensive numbers dipped in 2016, and this could be a case of a player being pulled down by his team's near-total collapse and the erosion of the structure around him. A.J. Pollock, the second-most important part of Arizona's lineup, was lost for almost the whole season. Whatever the explanation, Goldschmidt plummeted from 163 wRC+ in 2015, fifth best in the majors and second best among first basemen behind Votto, to a 134 last season, just ahead of Carlos Santana.
"He needs to play again in October to get his just due," one scout said. Goldschmidt has reached the postseason once in his career (2011) and went 7-for-16 with two homers.
5. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
The phrase "most-feared" rankles stats analysts, and mostly for good reason. But the words are apropos for Cabrera, because he continues to be the guy pitchers do not want to see standing at the plate with the game on the line in the late innings. He stayed healthy last season, playing in 158 games, and he hit .316 with 38 homers. He will collect his 450th career home run early in the 2017 season, near his 34th birthday. And in the days that follow, he will likely collect his 2,600th hit and 1,600th RBI. He has the highest batting average for any active player (with enough at-bats to qualify), and Cabrera has received top-10 MVP votes in every season of his career.
He is building one of the greatest hitting resumes in major league history. Yes, his defense isn't good –- although, because of his acumen and his hands, he's probably a little better than he gets credit for in metrics –- and he is a base clogger who increasingly hits into double plays. But he was destined for the Hall of Fame years ago, and there’s no end in sight to his time as an elite offensive player.
6. Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
The Royals first baseman probably has more to gain from a strong 2017 than any other position player given his impending free agency. And if Kansas City struggles in the first half, it's possible (but unlikely) that he could finish next season in another uniform. Hosmer will hit the open market at 28 years old, and he will be paid very well for his offense, defense (he has won three Gold Gloves) and ability to run the bases.
He had a really rough second half of 2016, with an OPS of .676, and at season's end, Royals manager Ned Yost said that Hosmer had been dealing with a wrist issue. He had a career-high 25 homers and 104 RBIs last year but hit a lot more ground balls, with his rate rocketing to 59 percent, the most ever for the left-handed hitter.
7. Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox
There are a lot of questions among evaluators about Abreu and what he will be moving forward after he took a step back last season, with his slugging percentage dropping to .468, which is more than 100 points lower than in his rookie year of 2014. When his time in the big leagues began, some scouts questioned whether he could get to inside fastballs. And last season, folks within the White Sox organization thought pitches in this area really hurt him, because he chased pitches time and again. As the White Sox go through their rebuilding, they have made him available to other teams, but with Abreu set to turn 30 this month and with some teams wondering whether he’ll go back to being an MVP candidate, it will be interesting to see if White Sox GM Rick Hahn's asking price is met. Last year, Abreu ranked 11th among first basemen in wRC+ at 111 and 14th in WAR.
8. Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers
Some evaluators believed that Gonzalez's days of power hitting were behind him after he hit two homers last May and just one in June. Gonzalez is 34, after all. But the Dodgers infielder swung for more damage in the second half, hitting 11 of his 18 homers after the All-Star break –- although his on-base percentage declined. As he showed in the postseason, he continues to be a good defensive first baseman, throwing aggressively; he was among the upper half of those at his position in defensive runs saved.
9. Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles
He has clubbed 197 homers over the past five seasons, and he'll probably approach 300 homers for his career sometime during the 2018 season. Through every season, there are periods when he'll carry the Orioles with his power, and he's an excellent first baseman.
10. Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians
He played 64 games at first base last season and may get more time there this year, now that the Indians have signed Edwin Encarnacion. His ability to reach base (.366) prompted Terry Francona to use him out of the leadoff spot sometimes. And as his power improved last season to a career-high 34 homers, his strikeouts went down to 99.
Honorable mention
Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals intend to make him their full-time first baseman, a place where he could be best-suited defensively. Carpenter had a .380 on-base percentage last year, and has 49 homers over the past two seasons.
Hanley Ramirez, Boston Red Sox: He turned out to be better than expected as a defender at first base -– not great, maybe not even good, but at least serviceable. He seemingly benefited from being back in the adrenaline of the infield. And with a far greater comfort level, he thrived at the plate after the All-Star break. Over his last 62 games of 2016, Ramirez batted .295, with a .369 on-base percentage and had 22 homers and 63 RBIs.
But he's hard to place on this list because unless David Ortiz surprises the baseball world by reversing his decision to retire, Ramirez will probably get a lot of at-bats at designated hitter for the Red Sox, with the newly signed Mitch Moreland playing first base. Part of the decision-making about that could be predicated on Ramirez's obvious preference to be in the midst of the action, a shift that benefited him a lot last season.
Wil Myers, San Diego Padres: He had the best season of his career in 2016, with 28 homers, 99 runs and 28 stolen bases. He also impressed some scouts with his defense, but some evaluators want to see more from him before elevating him into the top 10.
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants: He's a high-end defender, loves to throw and can hit for power. But last year, opposing pitchers just challenged him with fastballs –- only two first basemen saw a higher percentage of fastballs than Belt did -- and Belt sometimes struggled to cope with that.
Mike Napoli, free agent: He'll find a team eventually, after mashing 34 homers and driving in 101 runs for the Indians last season.
Ian Desmond, Colorado Rockies: For now, he's slated to play first base regularly for the first time in his career, after signing a five-year, $70 million deal with the Rockies.