One day this past June, Madison Bumgarner lounged in the runway leading to the home dugout in AT&T Park and talked about the San Francisco Giants, but he spun into a thought doughnut in mid-sentence and posed the sort of big-picture question that he can’t stand to answer: Are we seeing the greatest pitcher ever at his very best?
Bumgarner was talking about Clayton Kershaw, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ left-hander who is the best pitcher on the planet, and might be the best pitcher to ever walk the planet. Kershaw is Major League Baseball's active leader in ERA at 2.37, significantly better than the pitcher in second place -- Bumgarner at 2.98. The only pitcher to allow fewer hits per nine innings than Kershaw's 6.62 –- the only pitcher, ever –- is Nolan Ryan (6.56). Kershaw is fourth all-time in WHIP at 1.007, and two of the pitchers ahead of him, Addie Joss and Ed Walsh, pitched against Ty Cobb in the dead ball era; the other was a closer, Mariano Rivera.
In the first of our positional and team unit rankings, we present the top 10 starting pitchers in today's game, compiled with help from evaluators around baseball, and it should start with an all-time great.
1. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Because of his back injury, Kershaw missed qualifying for the NL ERA by just 13 innings last year, and that will probably mean the excellence of his 2016 season will be lost to history -– which is too bad, because Bumgarner’s evaluation was dead on. Arguably the greatest pitcher of all time at his absolute best.
Kershaw struck out 172 and walked 11 for a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 15.64. In 19 of the 21 starts he made last season, he allowed two earned runs or fewer. He surrendered 10 hits in a start once among those 21 starts and allowed five hits or fewer in 15 starts.
Some opposing hitters say they like to face the Dodgers ace because of the purity of the challenge. Kershaw is going to throw you strikes and, during your at-bat, you will get chances to swing the bat. He will challenge you. But success against Kershaw is intermittent on his worst day, close to impossible on his best day.
Some club officials were pleased by how Kershaw responded to the treatment to his back and that he got through the postseason without a recurrence. Others in the organization were surprised that he had been able to pitch through his physical problems as long as he did. Kershaw turns 29 during spring training.
2. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
Over the past four seasons, Scherzer has racked up 1,052 strikeouts in 891⅔ innings, while allowing only 689 hits, which explains why it seems like every five days he’s a threat to create a lasting memory.
"No-hit stuff almost every time out," said one longtime evaluator.
Scherzer expressed some frustration by the number of homers he surrendered last season, a league-high 31, but a large portion of those were solo shots; he surrendered a total of 75 earned runs. He limited opposing hitters to a .199 average, and when he gets ahead in the count, he is just about peerless in his ability to finish off batters.
Opponents against Scherzer after the count was 0-1 in 2016: .493 OPS
After 0-2: .348 OPS, with 149 strikeouts in 252 at-bats.
After 1-2: .359 OPS, with 154 strikeouts in 281 at-bats.
3. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
He had his best-ever performance in a regular season in 2016, compiling a 2.74 ERA in 34 starts, with a career-high 226⅔ innings. Then, in the National League wild card game, he shut out the Mets and reminded everyone why he could go down in history with Mariano Rivera as the best postseason pitchers. Bumgarner is 27 years old and he has six starts in the playoffs and World Series in which he has allowed zero runs while throwing seven or more innings.
Bumgarner's contract situation is worth watching: He's signed for 2017, with club options for 2018 and 2019, and the most he could make for those three years under the terms of his current deal is a total of $35.5 million. Time will tell whether the Giants will revisit a contract that has turned out to be extremely team friendly.
The heavy prospect price paid by the Red Sox to acquire the left-hander is just one indicator of Sale's value, but hitters tell us all we need to know. "He’s no fun for the hitters," said one evaluator, referring to Sale's praying mantis delivery.
Over the past three seasons, Sale has 715 strikeouts and only 504 hits allowed in 609⅓ innings, and for his career, he has an adjusted ERA+ of 135 -- the same as Randy Johnson and Christy Mathewson, two of the best pitchers in history.
Sale joins a rotation that includes reigning AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello and former Cy Young winner David Price, and yet Red Sox manager John Farrell was asked at the winter meeting who would get the ball on Opening Day. Sale is worthy of that question.
5. Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
After he dominated the first game of the postseason, Terry Francona recalls a reporter asked the manager how impressed he was by the right-hander -- and Francona was taken aback by the question, because Kluber had pitched so many big games for Cleveland. This was just a routine performance, Francona thought. "In a weird sort of way, that was a compliment about how good he is," said the manager.
Kluber continued to carry the Indians through a postseason in which Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar were not available to start. "He had never made any starts on short rest," Francona said, "and he never made any excuses."
Kluber won the Cy Young Award in 2014, but his excellence in October of 2016 seemed to be Kluber’s great emergence on the national stage.
6. Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
In his first start this year, Syndergaard announced his presence with authority, spinning a slider at a stunning 95 mph against the Kansas City Royals. No starting pitcher throws harder -- in fact, nobody is even close in average fastball velocity -- and despite the fact that Syndergaard struck out 218 batters and walked 43 batters in 2016, he's still very early in his career, still learning. "Of all the guys on your list," said one evaluator, "he’s probably got the best stuff."
7. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
In a conversation earlier this offseason, Tigers manager Brad Ausmus talked about how important Verlander's adjustments have been. The 2011 AL MVP is fully healthy again, but as Verlander has adapted to age, he has thrown more sliders and done more with scouting reports, exploiting hitters' weaknesses -– something he didn’t necessarily have to do in the years he routinely threw 100 mph. Last year, Verlander had 254 strikeouts, the second-highest he has had in any season in his career, and he had a 3.04 ERA.
Verlander turns 34 this winter, and he has 173 victories and will likely surpass 2,500 innings and 2,400 strikeouts in his career next year. A few years ago, I asked Verlander about what he wanted to accomplish in his time in the majors, and he was blunt: He wants to do everything he can to earn induction into the Hall of Fame.
He would seem to have an excellent chance.
No major leaguer will have more money at stake in 2017 than Arrieta, who will be eligible for free agency next fall and could be the No. 1 target on the market if he has another strong season, at age 31.
Because of his complicated delivery and the violent movement of his stuff, Arrieta is never going to be a Greg Maddux-like artist who constantly nicks the edges of the zone, but he, like Scherzer, has that any-given-day capability: the no-hitter watch starts in the first inning with him.
Throughout the second half of last season, his performance was constantly compared to his unprecedented work in the second half of 2015. But in the end, Arrieta was still dominant, giving up just 138 hits in 197⅓ innings with a 3.10 ERA.
9. Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
He has pitched on three championship teams now, with two historic franchises, and he is coming off the best regular-season performance of his career: Lester finished second in the NL Cy Young voting to Max Scherzer. Lester, who turns 33 on Jan. 7, is beginning to build a credible case for the Hall of Fame; although he still has a long way to go, it’s within the realm of possibility.
Lester just surpassed 2,000 regular-season innings in his career, and he has an adjusted ERA+ of 124, in the same statistical neighborhood as Jim Palmer (125), Lefty Gomez (125) and Tom Seaver (127). He pitched most of his career in the AL East and has a 3.44 ERA. But the strength of Lester's Hall of Fame resume will probably be his work in the postseason: 22 starts, 133⅔ innings and a 2.63 ERA. In six World Series games, he’s 4-1 with a 1.77 ERA.
Wins don’t have the cache they used to, but they can serve as a barometer for how far along Lester is in his journey, and with 146 victories, the left-hander probably needs at least three more years of high-end performance to become a serious candidate. But he seems capable because of his seemingly constant development as a pitcher. David Ross, who served as Lester’s catcher in Boston and with the Cubs, thinks he has become a more complete pitcher.
"When he was in Boston, he had to dominate inside to right-handed hitters," Ross recalled. "He had trouble pitching in to left-handed hitters. Now he can sink it and throw a good changeup to that side of the plate, and he pitches in quadrants, too. He can go up and in, or down and in."
10. Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants
Some teams shied away from Cueto when he reached free agency in the fall of 2015 because of concerns about his elbow, but his first year with the Giants was exceptional: He threw 219⅔ innings with only 45 walks. Consistent? How about this: His ERA in home games was 2.79, and on the road it was 2.78. Only three pitchers fared better in fWAR in 2016.
Honorable mention
Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox -- Coming off his Cy Young-winning season, what evaluators wonder is if he can repeat his success.
David Price, Boston Red Sox -- His first season in Boston was generally better than perceived, but he had his struggles, and as he has mentioned, he knows he has to fare better in postseason games.
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals -- Always dominant when he pitches but has had injury trouble.
Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays -- Overpowering stuff, and he will almost certainly be on this list next season.
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays -- Struggled last season, but some evaluators believe that his 2016 was an aberration.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs -- His average fastball velocity was 87.8 mph, ranked 69th out of 73 qualified pitchers, but he demonstrated in 2016 that he might have the majors' best changeup and an unusual feel for pitching.
Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals -- He took another step forward in 2016, naturally ascending into the role of the St. Louis ace.
Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees -- Like Arrieta, he could cash in after this season: Tanaka can go into free agency in the fall if he chooses to opt out of his deal with the Yankees.