With 31 percent of Hall of Fame ballots now public -- thanks to Ryan Thibodaux -- we can start to draw some conclusions:

1. Lee Smith will not be elected to the Hall in his 15th and final year on the ballot. He’s currently polling at 27.4 percent, far short of the 75 percent need for election.

2. Curt Schilling has lost more votes from writers who previously picked him than any other candidate on the ballot. According to Thibodaux’s calculations, 18 writers switched their votes away from Schilling. The next-most votes lost: the seven lost by both Trevor Hoffman and Fred McGriff.

Jerry Crasnick wrote about the Schilling phenomenon earlier this month, addressing the question: Is it possible to tweet your way out of Cooperstown?

In my opinion, this is a really bad look for the baseball writers, because it’s a loose affirmation of a stereotype that is almost always wrong: Writers pick candidates based on whether they like them. Since last year’s balloting, Schilling hasn’t thrown a single pitch; nothing he has written or said changes anything about what he did as a major league player over 20 years.