With 31 percent of Hall of Fame ballots now public -- thanks to Ryan Thibodaux -- we can start to draw some conclusions:

1. Lee Smith will not be elected to the Hall in his 15th and final year on the ballot. He’s currently polling at 27.4 percent, far short of the 75 percent need for election.

2. Curt Schilling has lost more votes from writers who previously picked him than any other candidate on the ballot. According to Thibodaux’s calculations, 18 writers switched their votes away from Schilling. The next-most votes lost: the seven lost by both Trevor Hoffman and Fred McGriff.

Jerry Crasnick wrote about the Schilling phenomenon earlier this month, addressing the question: Is it possible to tweet your way out of Cooperstown?

In my opinion, this is a really bad look for the baseball writers, because it’s a loose affirmation of a stereotype that is almost always wrong: Writers pick candidates based on whether they like them. Since last year’s balloting, Schilling hasn’t thrown a single pitch; nothing he has written or said changes anything about what he did as a major league player over 20 years.

Schilling talked about his Hall of Fame chances on Kirk & Callahan on Thursday, saying his mistakes have mostly been about his passionate opinions, not legal mistakes that others are in the news for.

3. Jeff Bagwell will apparently gain election this year with a voting percentage more than twice that of the first time he appeared on the ballot, in 2011. Yes, the perspective on the steroid-era candidates has changed.

4. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens may not get into the Hall of Fame, but this year will probably turn out to be a turning point in their respective candidacies. Both are currently polling at 71.3 percent, and while Thibodaux’s past work has shown that the percentages of candidates tend to flatten by the time the final results are announced, they will both go into next December’s voting with a legitimate chance of achieving the 75 percent needed for election.

They have gotten a big boost from first-time voters: 10 of 11 have cast ballots for Clemens and Bonds. (And 11 of 11 voted for Bagwell, Ivan Rodriguez and Tim Raines.)

5. Despite Manny Ramirez's two suspensions for PED use, he will apparently remain on the ballot, given that he is polling at 31.1 percent -- a healthy total for a player up for election for the first time.

The dominoes are falling quickly.

Mike Piazza's election -- despite the suspicions of a lot of writers that he used PEDs -- seems to have paved the way for Bagwell. And with Piazza in and Bagwell destined for induction, it probably doesn’t make sense for a lot of voters to keep Clemens or Bonds off their ballots.

If Clemens and Bonds gain election -- as soon as next year -- it won’t make sense that Ramirez isn’t in (or Alex Rodriguez, when he becomes eligible).

Again: Piazza, Bagwell, Clemens, Bonds, Ramirez and A-Rod are all members in good standing, according to Major League Baseball and the Baseball Hall of Fame.

And with Ivan Rodriguez currently receiving 85 percent of the vote, Stefan Stevenson writes about why some voters won’t put the catcher on their ballots.