The Cleveland Indians should learn something about their fan base over the next couple of years. Even as the Indians rolled to a division title in 2016, the Indians still finished 28th among 30 teams in attendance, drawing about 1.6 million fans -- less than the Marlins, less than the rebuilding Cincinnati Reds.
Now the Indians have shocked the baseball world by adding Edwin Encarnacion to a team that played to the 10th inning of Game 7 of the World Series. The Indians’ ownership has stepped up with an investment far and above previous deals, and no fair-minded person can fairly whine about the Dolans being cheap.
If Cleveland’s market doesn’t support this team in 2017 and 2018, before some difficult payroll decisions to come for the 2019 team, some natural questions would probably evolve about whether the stands at Progressive Field can be consistently filled under any circumstances. This will be a near-perfect opportunity, because the 2017 and 2018 Indians have a chance to be great, and return to the World Series again.
That the Cleveland Indians have served as the one-stop shop for teams looking for baseball operations brain power says a lot about their hiring and their sound process for deal-making. The Blue Jays, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Twins are among the organizations that have drawn on this marrow.
Throughout the baseball industry, then, there will be an appreciation for how the Indians -- the small-budget Indians -- managed to take down one of the two best available sluggers in free agency for a great rate.
For context, consider that the Mets signed Yoenis Cespedes, the No. 1 free agent hitter, to a four-year deal for $110 million. Over the last five seasons, Cespedes played 707 games, hit 137 homers, drove in 453 runs, had an OPS of .819, and had an OPS+ of 124.
Encarnacion has much better offensive numbers across the board: He played 727 games the last five years, with 193 homers, 550 RBIs, an OPS of .912, and an OPS+ of 146. And the Indians have committed just $60 million to Encarnacion over the next three seasons, with $25 million team option for 2020, when he will be 37 years old.
Encarnacion turned down $80 million in a four-year offer from the Jays earlier in this offseason, and teams perceived his camp’s ask to be $125 million over five years. As he dangled in the market over recent weeks and that price plummeted, with Encarnacion descending from an expensive target to a relative bargain, some rival executives wondered which team would step in and make it happen for a reduced rate. The Red Sox? The Rangers? The Rockies?
The Astros got involved, perhaps to the point of a three-year offer for something in the range of $75 million. Oakland was willing to pay Encarnacion at a high rate, but only for two years guaranteed. The Rangers did, in fact, get involved, perhaps for three years and about $57 million.
Even folks in the Indians’ organization thought signing Encarnacion was an absolute longshot, that they were being used for leverage, and short of Encarnacion’s market collapsing to a place they didn’t expect, the Tribe’s brass was unsure if it could present an offer acceptable to him -- and acceptable to themselves, because they would have to sacrifice a draft pick. The Indians had to have a deal of at least three years to justify the cost of the draft choice, and they couldn’t really extend beyond a three-year offer.
But it has happened, and now the Indians’ 2017 lineup could look like this:
2B Jason Kipnis
1B Encarnacion
3B Jose Ramirez
CF Tyler Naquin
C Roberto Perez and Yan Gomes
There is reason for some trepidation for the Indians, who have seen multi-year free-agent investments turn out badly recently, with Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher. Encarnacion played a lot of first base for the Blue Jays last year, but he is a below-average defender at best and he probably will get in a lot of games at DH for Cleveland next season, which means that Santana -- also a poor defender -- will have to play a lot of first again as well. There probably isn’t going to be a lot of help on throws from Kipnis and Lindor and the others.
But the team’s offense, already underrated after finishing second in the AL in runs last season, could be even better, with Encarnacion, the expected return of Brantley and the maturation of young players like Lindor, Ramirez and Naquin. Santana will be eligible for free agency after the 2017 season, and his departure would allow Encarnacion to become a full-time DH in 2018 and 2019. The Indians will have more salary space for Encarnacion’s deal as well after Santana leaves; Santana had been set to be Cleveland’s highest-paid player at $12 million.
The addition of Encarnacion is possible only because of the other smart investments the Indians have made in recent years, mostly picking the right players. Cleveland reached the World Series two months ago, but it has a roster filled with established players at salaries that work for a small-market team.
The Indians seemingly have a tremendous competitive opportunity right now, because of how the AL Central has evolved. The White Sox and Twins are going through rebuilding cycles, Detroit has been looking to cut payroll and hasn’t made any major upgrades this winter, and the Royals are grappling with budget problems that forced them to deal closer Wade Davis and may lead to a trade of Lorenzo Cain or some other established star. Some rival evaluators believe that no team faces a smoother path to a division title than the Indians will have in 2017.
Plans don’t always work out, of course; nobody knows that better than manager Terry Francona, who may double his gum-chewing rate next season as the Indians and their dexterous front office assume a place unfamiliar to them or any other small-budget team: Prohibitive favorites.
• The signing of Encarnacion is a coup for the Indians, writes Keith Law.
• Paul Hoynes writes about what the Indians will do with Encarnacion. Paul Swydan writes about Encarnacion’s possible impact. This is an aggressive move by the normally cautious Indians, writes Ryan Lewis.
• From ESPN Stats and Information, more on the signing: Encarnacion posted his first career 40-HR season in 2012. Since then, the only player with more homers than Encarnacion's 193 homers is Chris Davis with 197. Encarnacion also set a career high in RBIs in 2016, tied his career-high in homers, and fell just two doubles shy of tying that career high.
If the initial details of Encarnacion's deal -- three years, $60 million -- are correct, that would make it the largest free-agent contract in Indians franchise history, larger than either their four-year, $56 million deal with Swisher or their $48 million contract with Bourn for four years.