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No matter how you frame it, potential contenders have holes to fill

Matt Wieters hasn't fared well when it comes to pitch-framing metrics. He's a free agent, and the Orioles are looking for a catcher. Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. -- The Minnesota Twins signed Jason Castro to a three-year, $24.5 million deal in November in spite of a rough history as a hitter, and at least partly because Castro has been one of the dominant catchers in pitch-framing statistics, which theoretically reflects the ability to present pitches to umpires in a way that makes them look like strikes.

Castro ranked fifth among all catchers last season in one pitch-framing metric, as compiled by Catcher Report, after finishing in the top 10 the year before. During the postseason, Cleveland catcher Roberto Perez seemingly turned borderline pitches from Corey Kluber, Josh Tomlin, Ryan Merritt and other Indians pitchers into strikes, a performance thought to have made the difference for the Indians as they advanced to Game 7 of the World Series.

Pitch-framing is a skill that teams have increasingly sought and paid for, and more and more, teams give evaluation demerits to catchers who don’t rate highly. Matt Wieters is seemingly one catcher who has been hurt by this, after finishing low in these metrics.

Wieters is looking for a job now, at a time when the Orioles are looking for a frontline catcher, one of the 10 biggest holes in the market among teams that are working to contend in 2017.

But Wieters may well have been working at some disadvantage in the pitch-framing statistics due to the makeup of the staff he has had in Baltimore, because of the relative stuff and velocity of the Orioles pitchers.

Data suggests at least some correlation between velocity and pitch-framing, because just as hitters have less reaction time to pitches thrown at higher speeds, a catcher also has less time to react in trying to present the pitch. Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information has done as much work on pitch-presentation numbers as any analyst, and he dug this out: the pitchers with the highest average fastball velocity, along with how they rank in getting calls through catcher presentation:

Naturally, pitchers who don’t throw as hard seem to do better:

Generally, Houston’s pitching staffs have been soft-tossing, compared with the velocity of other teams. Coincidence or not, Houston’s catchers have fared very well in pitch-framing metrics in recent years, including Castro, Hank Conger and, last year, Evan Gattis, the burly part-time catcher and DH. Gattis ranked ahead of the likes of Jeff Mathis and Russell Martin, two veterans long perceived to be good defenders.

Last year, Wieters worked with the hard-throwing Kevin Gausman, as well as Zach Britton, whose raw velocity and movement make it very difficult to frame pitches. Jonathan Lucroy went from having some of the best pitch-framing numbers when he was with the Brewers to having poor numbers with the Rangers, as he learned that staff.

Something else worth thinking about: Umpires will tell you privately that it can be difficult to call balls and strikes on a pitcher who struggles to command pitches, because they’re inconsistent, all over the place. Maybe the same could be said for catchers who try to frame pitches.

Mark also dug out these notes on the work of the Orioles’ catchers with Ubaldo Jimenez, who is often inconsistent with his command, tending to throw a lot of pitches in the dirt and a lot of wild pitches. Caleb Joseph, Mark noted, has had great catcher-framing numbers.

“Ubaldo is +40.8 strikes above average with Joseph,” Mark wrote, “and -6.8 with Wieters over the last 2 years. Wieters' numbers being bad isn't a one-year thing. His numbers have been bad since 2012.”

It may well be about the catcher, to some degree. It might be about the pitchers, too. This is something teams will have to figure out as they decide how much to invest in the skill -- including the Orioles, who haven’t completely closed the door on a Wieters return.

As the end of the winter meetings draws near, these are the biggest holes among contending teams.

1. Orioles, catcher

Chance Cisco is Baltimore’s catcher of the future, as Keith Law says, but Baltimore -- which made the playoffs last year and will try to do so again, needs a catcher for next season.

2. Dodgers, third baseman

The Dodgers love Justin Turner, and he loves playing for the Dodgers, by all accounts. But the two sides have been far enough in their talks over his next contract that they have been exploring alternatives. If the Dodgers don’t retain Turner, Todd Frazier of the White Sox could make a lot of sense for L.A. as a 2017 stopgap before he reaches free agency -- and we know the White Sox are in sell mode.

3. Dodgers, closer

The Dodgers talked with the Royals before K.C. swapped Wade Davis to the Cubs, and they reportedly were involved in the conversations with Aroldis Chapman before he signed with the Yankees Wednesday. They could sign Kenley Jansen, theoretically.

But signing both Turner and Jansen would push the Dodgers’ payroll obligations to somewhere in the range of $240 million in 2017 and 2018, way over the luxury-tax threshold. Andy McCullough writes that the Dodgers are waiting for Jansen.

With the depth in the rest of their pitching staff and Andrew Friedman's history of identifying reliever options, there would seem to be no reason for panic (which is probably how they felt in San Francisco at this time of year).

Total speculation: The Dodgers could take a look at Santiago Casilla, who seemingly maintained really good stuff with the Giants last year even as he struggled in the closer role.

The Dodgers demonstrated a different philosophy than the Red Sox in their handling of the Chris Sale trade talks, writes Bill Shaikin.

4. Cardinals, outfield

St. Louis would like to improve its defense and its athleticism, and although scouts do not regard Dexter Fowler as a high-end fielder, an outfield of Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk in the corners around Fowler would represent a major upgrade.

5. Rangers, first base

Last spring, Texas’s loose plans for 2017 were to slide Joey Gallo to first base if Mitch Moreland departed. But Gallo struggled terribly in 2016, leaving the position wide open. There are tons of options available for Texas now, with the market seemingly turning in their direction: Free agents need the Rangers’ opportunity and money almost more than the Rangers need a free agent. If they want to go for power, there is Edwin Encarnacion or Mark Trumbo. If they want leadership, power and a reunion, there’s Mike Napoli. If they want defense, there is James Loney. If they prefer thrift, there’s Mark Reynolds or Justin Morneau. And these are just a handful of names available to them.

But GM Jon Daniels has signaled repeatedly to reporters and other teams that he doesn’t have much money left to make moves.

6. Cleveland, first base

The Indians appear to be in a great spot, with the market collapsing back to them, and they’ll probably get somebody good, whether Encarnacion has to take a deal with them out of desperation, or a reunion with Mike Napoli is arranged.

7. Houston, rotation

The Astros have what appears to be a great lineup and a good bullpen, and they are in win-now mode, with Carlos Beltran signed to a one-year deal and new catcher Brian McCann under control for the next two seasons. But their rotation is not deep, and internally the expectation is that Houston will trade for starting pitching. Jose Quintana of the White Sox would be expensive, because of his star power and because he’s under control for the next five years through the terms of a very team-friendly contract.

With the Astros having already bet so much on next season, however, it could be they’ll ante up again for the starting pitching they need.

8. Pittsburgh, rotation

The Pirates fell back under .500 last season, but even if Pittsburgh trades Andrew McCutchen -- and that’s a big if, as Pittsburgh seeks a deal that would yield what the Pirates perceive to be equal value -- the team has a lot of good players with whom they will try to contend. Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Gerrit Cole, Tony Watson and others will give the Pirates a chance to get back to the playoffs next season, but Pittsburgh needs a starter, and they are talking about Derek Holland, Brett Anderson and others.

9. Giants, bullpen

San Francisco paid heavily for Mark Melancon to be their closer, but they need another reliever, preferably a left-hander given the departures of Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt the last two offseasons.

10. Mets, bullpen

With closer Jeurys Familia facing a possible suspension at the start of next season, the Mets need another bullpen safety net. But they have to move an outfielder or get creative in other ways to free the needed salary.