Two weeks before the expiration of baseball’s collective bargaining agreement, the owners met in Chicago. According to sources, commissioner Rob Manfred -- who had been through repeated rounds of labor negotiations himself -- offered a forecast for the last days of talks.
The negotiations are going to go down to the deadline and this will play to MLB’s advantage, Manfred told them. In so many words, Manfred predicted: If the talks go to the last 48 hours, MLB’s negotiators will overmatch the union side.
As the dust settles from the CBA agreement, this is precisely what appears to have happened, in the eyes of folks on both sides. There are agents who are forlorn about the fact that, in their eyes, the union acceded to at least two measures that will serve as hard salary caps for all practical purposes -- the restrictions on spending for international amateurs by individual teams, and the luxury tax level of 92 percent, under certain conditions.
“Call it what you want,” said one management official, “but that’s a salary cap. No team is going to spend past the point where they’re paying a 92 percent tax.”
A common refrain through decades of labor talks has been that in collective bargaining talks, the union had better lawyers than the owners. It was said time and again, over and over. The union had better counsel, including Marvin Miller to Don Fehr to Gene Orza to Michael Weiner to the folks who worked for them, and the owners seemingly floundered in how they responded legally, and in talks. The perception of many people on both sides of this deal is that the balance of power has shifted.
If I served as an adviser for Tony Clark, the head of the union, I would give him this advice: He needs to reach out to the player agents, and engage them. He needs to alter his treatment of most of them, because a lot of them felt completely shut out. Only Clark could know how or why this developed, whether he felt it was more worthwhile to speak directly to the players or spend his time in other ways, but the fact is that his relationship with the agents is now a serious political problem.
The stuff that agents feel is very similar to what you heard from some Washington Nationals players about Matt Williams before Williams was replaced: He doesn’t talk to us enough; he doesn’t inform us; he doesn’t include us.
That undercurrent crushed the perception of Williams within the Washington clubhouse, and given the very close relationship that most agents have with their players -- how the players will ask their agents for opinion and advice -- the same thing could happen with Tony Clark. He needs to turn that around, and the only way he can really do that is by dealing with the agents in a way they prefer.
Notables
• How far will the White Sox dare to go with a rebuild? GM Rick Hahn is on the spot, writes David Haugh.
Already there is a sense among rival executives that the White Sox will continue to circle back to teams and wait for someone to say yes to their asking price for Sale, which is regarded (unsurprisingly) as extremely high.
It’s unclear if the White Sox will get what they want, writes Daryl Van Schouwen.
• About the Astros and the possible inclusion of Alex Bregman in a Sale trade: Houston executives are telling rivals there’s “no chance” they move Bregman.
• Nick Cafardo writes about the scenarios that could develop at the winter meetings.
I’ll leave this very loose prediction here (As in: It’s just informed speculation, like picking division winners in March): If the asking price for Sale starts to drop just a little, I’d bet that the Red Sox might have the most significant combination of prospect choices (Andrew Benintendi, Blake Swihart, Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers, etc.) and motivation to make a move.
• The Dodgers haven’t announced a new deal with Rich Hill, they haven’t confirmed that they have a three-year agreement with the left-hander, but a lot of the folks in the industry anticipate that Hill will pitch for L.A. in 2017, with Clayton Kershaw and others. Bill Plunkett writes about the situation.
L.A.’s potential spread of rotation options for next season is impressive: Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill (assuming he signs), Scott Kazmir, Julio Urias, Brandon McCarthy, Alex Wood, Jose De Leon and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Because of injuries, the Dodgers burned through their pitching depth last year, but it appears they have enough options to consider a trade of Kazmir, in a market very thin in starting pitching.
• The Yankees have been digging into talks with relief pitchers like Aroldis Chapman -- they were engaged with Brett Cecil, before the lefty signed with the Cardinals -- and with hitters, and sources say that the Yankees continue to dangle third baseman Chase Headley in the market as they look for upgrades to their everyday lineup. The Yankees seem to be focused on players who will not cost them their first-round draft pick, No. 17 overall.
The Yankees are looking to bolster their bullpen, writes Mark Feinsand.
• Yasmany Tomas has been working to improve his foot speed this offseason, to help with the range he covers in the outfield, which fits with an overall strategy that the Diamondbacks seem to be taking this offseason -- to improve their run prevention, through defense and pitching.
Arizona doesn’t have a lot of payroll flexibility, but if the Diamondbacks can improve their pitching and defense, there is an overriding organizational confidence that the team can be better than the club that won 69 games last season. A.J. Pollock will be back in the outfield after missing almost all of last season following an elbow fracture -- potentially a massive upgrade on offense and defense -- to augment a lineup that has Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb and Tomas; last season, that trio combined for 84 homers. New catcher Jeff Mathis should help with the pitching and defense.
Arizona has a lot of talented young pitchers, with Taijuan Walker, Robbie Ray, Shelby Miller, Archie Bradley, Braden Shipley and others, so there are tools for the revamped staff to work with. If Walker ascends, if Miller bounces back, if Bradley evolves, the Diamondbacks might have something, and contend for the playoffs.
If they don’t, they could take Pollock and other veterans into the trade market in mid-summer -- when they would probably draw enormous interest and trade return -- without interrupting Arizona’s overriding effort to compile young talent. Just as Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto had a two-pronged approach to 2016 -- to try to win by incrementally augmenting the team’s core of high-end players, while also starting to rebuild the farm system -- the Diamondbacks feel they can take a shot at the postseason in 2017 without interfering with some of the big-picture changes they are making.
The Diamondbacks will seek bullpen help at the winter meetings, writes Nick Piecoro.
• Rival evaluators say in the aftermath of a new CBA that will mitigate draft-pick compensation on big-time free agents, the Royals are prepared to listen to trade offers for some of their older players, from Lorenzo Cain to Eric Hosmer to Mike Moustakas to closer Wade Davis. Those guys are all eligible for free agency after next season.
“But whatever they do,” said one evaluator, “they’re still hell-bent on trying to contend next year. They’re trying to be competitive.”
David Glass’s stance is shortchanging the Royals’ core, Sam Mellinger wrote the other day.
Market watch
1. Toronto is looking for outfield help, writes Richard Griffin.
Cathal Kelly writes that the Blue Jays are pushing their luck by not opening their wallets. I’d respectfully disagree with that. To repeat: The pool of available hitters is enormous, and the perceived prices have already started to drop, through free agency or trade. Some teams that wait -- maybe not all of them -- will be rewarded. The Jays, the Giants, the Orioles, the Indians and the Yankees are going to help themselves this winter, and probably at a much lower cost than folks thought they might pay a month ago.
2. The Nationals are poised to make a move, writes Chelsea Janes.
3. Kristie Ackert writes about what the Mets need to get done. The Mets are likely to say goodbye to an outfielder.
4. Ken Davidoff writes about the 10 hottest names being discussed in the winter meetings.
5. Joel Sherman ranks all 30 teams by their desperation level.
6. Finding a closer continues to be a priority for the Giants, writes Carl Steward.
7. Here are the moves the Mariners might consider, from Ryan Divish. Seattle announced a couple of signings.
8. The Tigers go into the winter meetings amid an offseason of change, writes Anthony Fenech. Detroit is looking to make deals, and not just to cut payroll.
9. The Cubs might be quiet in these winter meetings.
10. The Cardinals seek an athletic center fielder.
11. With Carlos Beltran off the board, the Red Sox might turn to Matt Holliday.
AL East
• Marcus Stroman will pitch for Team USA.
• You can expect the Rays to shop their pitching depth at the winter meetings.
• David Ortiz is a big fan of free agent sluggers, writes Evan Drellich.
• Hanley Ramirez says it doesn’t matter where he plays.
AL Central
• Derek Falvey looks to make an imprint with the Twins, writes La Velle Neal.
• The Indians aim to add to a talented nucleus.
AL West
• Jeff Miller writes that 2017 has to be better for the Angels than 2016… right?
• Evan Grant has some advice for Rangers honcho Jon Daniels.
NL East
• Phillies pitcher Zach Eflin is pain-free in his knees.
• Mark Zuckerman has some thoughts on the Nationals’ moves.
• The Marlins are looking for pitching, pitching and more pitching.
NL Central
• The Cardinals must go big or go home, writes Jesus Ortiz.
• The Reds’ middle infield could remain crowded, writes Zach Buchanan.
• Homer Bailey is finally enjoying a normal offseason, writes C. Trent Rosecrans.
NL West
• The Padres’ 2017 rotation might be historically bad, writes Carson Cistulli. The Padres have some needs, writes Dennis Lin.
• Rockies GM Jeff Bridich anticipates the team’s pitching plan will pay off in the year ahead.
Lastly
Bud Selig and George Steinbrenner have a chance at Hall of Fame election Sunday, writes Tyler Kepner.
Bud Selig and John Schuerholz were viewed as favorites going into this weekend’s Hall of Fame vote. Jeff Schultz writes that Schuerholz needs to be in the Hall of Fame. Tom Haudricourt writes that Selig gets his shot today.
And today will be better than yesterday.