Dave Roberts has never managed in the big leagues, but as the Dodgers went through the process of picking someone, he became the safe option for Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers' president of baseball operations. This was the smart political play.
If Friedman had stuck with his initial favorite, former outfielder Gabe Kapler, he would've been gambling some of his credibility not only with his bosses, but with some of his players -- at a time when the Dodgers' leadership probably needs to start demonstrating acumen to the most important person in the organization, left-hander Clayton Kershaw. Based on conversations with evaluators around baseball, Kershaw continues to be widely perceived as the best pitcher on the planet and the Dodgers are in the midst of a window in which they have a chance to take advantage of a career that could rank among the best ever. Kershaw is in the top spot in our top 10 positional rankings that start today.
As the Dodgers' choice came down to two alternatives, Kapler or Roberts, the strong preference among some players was that Roberts get the job, because of lot of the Dodgers know him from his time working for the Padres, and because he has a lot of in-game experience as part of the San Diego staff.
The perception of Kapler's candidacy, in some important corners of the Dodgers' organization, is that it was built on his relationship with the front office -- Friedman, most notably. And if Kapler's inexperience as a manager had manifested during the 2016 season and the Dodgers had failed to make the playoffs under Kapler's watch, Friedman would've been blamed and undercut his own standing with his bosses, and with some players.
Kershaw turns 28 in March, and will have the opportunity to opt out of his contract after the 2018 season, something that the Dodgers need to remember, because Kershaw is the worthy heir to Sandy Koufax's legacy.
The top 10 starting pitchers in MLB in 2016:
1. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
He already has three Cy Young Awards and two other finishes in the top 3, and while some media and fans fretted over his ERA early in 2015, the Dodgers never did, believing that he was only a couple of small adjustments away from dominating hitters as he had in the past. In the second half, Kershaw had a 1.31 ERA, with 15 walks and 141 strikeouts in 109 2/3 innings.
Kershaw's 2016 season will be his ninth in the big leagues, leaving him just one short of the 10 needed for Hall of Fame consideration, and once he goes past that benchmark, he'll be a first-ballot lock. Kershaw's adjusted ERA+ stands at 154, which ties him for the best all time among starting pitchers, with Pedro Martinez.
2. Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
Some of the response to Arrieta winning the NL Cy Young Award last week was surprising, because apparently he is viewed by some media members as a one-hit wonder. Major league hitters strongly disagree.
Late in Arrieta's incredible run through the second half, when he posted a 0.75 ERA, Pirates catcher Francisco Cervelli talked about the difficulty of trying to hit the right-hander. Because of his peculiar crossfire delivery, Cervelli explained, it looks as if he's releasing the ball from somewhere around shortstop, and there's nobody else who throws like that, Cervelli said. Then the ball starts moving all over the place, because he's got a great cut fastball, or slider, or hybrid pitch, or whatever you want to call it, because Arrieta can vary the speeds of his breaking ball while using the same grip.
There are many different numbers that could define Arrieta's command of hitters last season, but this might be the best: From June 21 to the end of the regular season, he surrendered as many homers (two) as he hit himself.
Over the entire 2015 season, opponents had a .271 slugging percentage. To put that into perspective, the lowest MLB slugging percentage registered by any hitter qualified for the batting title was .320, by Alcides Escobar. The only hitter with at least 200 plate appearances who posted a slugging percentage that low was the Cardinals' Jon Jay, at .257. So Arrieta essentially turned all MLB hitters he faced into the least productive batter in the majors.
One-hit wonder? No.
3. Zack Greinke, Free agent
Of all the statistics generated by Greinke last season, this might be my favorite: Of the 34 starts he made in the regular season and postseason, he allowed three runs or fewer in 32. Think about that for a moment.
He posted the lowest ERA in the majors last season, at 1.66, and had the lowest WHIP (0.84) and the lowest OPS, at .507. He goes into each game with a distinct plan and has the ability to adjust and adapt with his incredible command. That the Dodgers had him and Kershaw in the rotation together in recent seasons is insane.
4. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
OK, so he didn't finish in the top three in the Cy Young balloting last season, and his regular-season numbers aren't close to those of Kershaw, or, in 2015, to Arrieta or Greinke. But because of what he did in the postseason in 2014, he will always be viewed as a Paul Bunyan-type figure among rival evaluators.
5. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
Among rival evaluators, his reputation probably climbed in 2015 more than any other starter in the majors, because of the quality of his fastball and the rapid development of his secondary stuff. One scout said if you looked at the top-10 list as a futures bet -- who will accomplish the most from 2016 onward, without regard for what has been done in the past -- he would pick deGrom for the No. 1 spot.
6. David Price, free agent
The left-hander won the Cy Young Award with the Rays in 2012, but 2015 might've represented the best work of his career. Last season, he had his lowest ERA, at 2.45, with 225 strikeouts and only 47 walks. Soon enough, he will get the largest contract of any of the free-agent pitchers, in the best class of free-agent pitchers in many years.
7. Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
Like Arrieta, he has won over evaluators who are accustomed to betting on the hardest throwers, the guys with overpowering fastballs. He is making a case to be this generation's Tom Glavine, because of how he can spot the ball, and because of the movement on his pitches.
8. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
He reminded everybody time and again in 2015 how overpowering he can be, throwing two no-hitters and coming close to perfect games. By the end of the season, only Kershaw had generated more strikeouts than Scherzer's 276. Some struggles after the All-Star break took him out of consideration for the NL Cy Young Award, and Scherzer's greatest challenge in 2016 will be to reduce the number of homers he allowed -- 27 last year, his most since 2011.
9. Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
He was remarkably consistent last year, with month-to-month ERAs of 1.76, 2.43, 2.35, 2.40, 3.13 and 3.29. With no runners on base, opponents hit .243, and with runners on, they batted .243. Those statistics are in line with what teammate Chris Stewart said about him, that Cole has improved his ability to handle in-game adversity and to stay in the moment as he works through trouble.
10. Matt Harvey, New York Mets
For all of the debate over Harvey's inning limitations and what the Mets should do with him moving forward, he came through 2015 with staggering success -- a 2.71 ERA in the regular season, followed by four good postseason starts. He'll go into the 2016 season at age 27 with his elbow reconstruction behind him, with velocity and his full array of pitches intact, and with no innings restrictions.
Toughest guy to leave off: Sonny Gray, whose career is off to an outstanding start. In his first 76 regular-season games in the big leagues, he has a 2.88 ERA -- and whenever Oakland decides to trade him, there will be a lot of interested suitors. Gray already is known for his willingness and ability to make adjustments, a trait that will serve him well as he ages and inevitably loses velocity.
Others in the mix: Chris Sale (who had a 4.33 ERA after the All-Star break last season), the luckless Corey Kluber and Chris Archer.
Notables
• Chris Davis has liked playing for the Orioles and the Orioles would like the slugger back. But he will be very expensive as a free agent, which is why it's important that Baltimore owner Peter Angelos has become personally involved in the team's effort to woo Davis back.
The Cardinals are among other teams also interested in Davis, who has 159 homers in the past four seasons, including 47 in 2015.
• Maury Wills is really proud of the Dodgers, as Bill Shaikin writes. Roberts is the best choice, Bill Plaschke wrote in the midst of the process. Roberts becomes the first minority to be hired as the Dodgers manager.
The hiring of Roberts is a bold move, writes Vincent Bonsignore.
The Padres hired a manager without interviewing Roberts.
Roberts' situation presents another example of one dynamic change in the hiring of managers in this era: They often have little or even no input on the makeup of their coaching staff.
• Steve Simmons wonders if the Arizona Coyotes are chasing Alex Anthopoulos.
Moves, deals and decisions
• The Dodgers are signing two more prospects from Cuba.
NL Central
• A Pirates catching prospect hopes to reach the majors soon.
AL East
• The Blue Jays' tricky offseason will determine the fate of the Yankees, writes Ken Davidoff.
AL Central
• Paul Hoynes explains a choice the Indians made.
• Some winter ball notes for the Indians.
Lastly
• Noah Syndergaard went to "Saturday Night Live".
• The Yogi Berra Museum honors broadcasting pros.
And today will be better than yesterday.